Re:Will automation put an end to the American trucker?
by panopticon on Tuesday October 10, 2017 @05:19PM
(#15445393)
> Managing multiple vehicles may end up being more cognitively challenging than driving a single truck, reducing the pool of available workers and driving up salaries
Tangential to this point: If this mode of truck operation becomes prevalent, I could potentially see a path where warehouses/loading docks get employees certified (a la forklift truck certifications) to operate the truck on premises to handle the "last mile" (i.e. on-site) operations. Now you've completely decimated the number of trucker jobs.
Re:Will automation put an end to the American trucker?
by firethief on Tuesday October 10, 2017 @09:28PM
(#15446658)
I think you're drastically underestimating the difficulty involved in manuevering an eighteen wheeler around the premises of a typical business. There's no way it would be cost effective to train people for that so that they can spend most of their time doing something else.
- Remote operation of trucks is an easier lifestyle, so more people would be willing to take the job, driving down salaries
- Fewer human truckers are needed per truck on the road, so for a given level of trucking activity, fewer jobs exist
Some potential countervailing factors:
- Price of trucking plummets, potentially jacking up demand (Jevons Paradox) depending on price elasticity of truck transportation
- Managing multiple vehicles may end up being more cognitively challenging than driving a single truck, reducing the pool of available workers and driving up salaries
The values of these parameters (and how they change over time) will be crucial to determining the net impact to trucker salaries and employment numbers. My intuition is that salaries will go down dramatically, employment numbers will go down modestly, and overall trucking activity will expand.