Not possible. North Korea shares a border with both China and Russia, and neither would agree to the type of embargo required. They haven't even enforced the embargoes they agreed to. The last thing they want, particularly China, is a total collapse of the regime and a flood of migrants coming across their border. They also see significant value in having a buffer state between them and American-allied South Korea. Both China and Russia benefit from a situation which exposes the limits of U.S. power. Finally, they have a greater tolerance for nuclear proliferation because, at the end of the day, it's really only the U.S. with a global footprint and a target on its back. They're playing a dangerous game, but however flawed their calculus they seem to think the prospective benefits are greater than the costs.

You'd think it would behoove China to simply replace Kim Jong-un, but for some of the above reasons, and more, they're not willing to try it.

If you track the past thirty years of diplomatic efforts, it's obvious how stark the choices are. Frankly, I'm astounded at how short the memories are in Washington, and how motivated their thinking. Across the political spectrum. It's really made clear to me how increasing partisanship (including reactions to that partisanship) has blinded everybody.

China has actually started partially enforcing the trade sanctions. They aren't in favor of nuclear proliferation either and won't knowingly allow nuclear weapons components through their territory. So containment is still mostly possible. It doesn't have to be an unbreakable barrier, just good enough.

If a blockade strategy were feasible, North Korea would have never gotten the bomb. North Korea has pursued a nuclear capability in earnest since at least the 1990s (EDIT: 1980s according to the Wikipedia timeline), though their desire to obtain one was declared decades earlier. It's unfolded so slowly and so deliberately that the public and many pundits don't even _remember_ all the precipitating events because at this point they don't even stand out. Just look at the timeline: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_North_Korean_n...

If China were serious about containment, if the sanctions were effective, then things would have never gotten even remotely this far. Both the U.S. and Israel were on the verge of bombing Iran before they even got as far as North Korea did before 2000.

The situation _inside_ China is complex, but ultimately the reasons are irrelevant because 1) China manifestly has proven that it is unwilling to be aggressive enough even during the periods when they were truly upset with North Korea and 2) there is no evidence that China's fundamental calculus has changed or even might change--the calculus that has allowed North Korea to openly a) begin a nuclear research program, b) refine and breed fuel, c) test nuclear weapons, and d) import, develop, and export missile technology to the point where they're close to e) having a delivery vehicle for a nuclear weapon. At each step China has vehemently (and believably) opposed those advancements, yet they've refused to prevent it. To be sure they've applied some pressure, just as they are now; but North Korea's resolve is too great.

Despite all this overwhelming, indisputably clear history, people are still in denial. It's incredible.

Trump is absolutely correct on at least one thing: negotiation is futile. Fortunately, my guess is that Trump's vanity and preternatural instinct for survival will stand in the way of the U.S. choosing to go to war over this issue. Which is why my money is on North Korea joining the nuclear ICBM club, with all that will entail down the road.