I suspect you overstate Chinese control over North Korea. Certainly they have influence and going against their wishes may have repercussions, but don't think that possible repercussions are the only thing that matters and don't assume that what is obvious and appropriate in your mind is the same for Kim Jong Un or Donald Trump.

Heck, for a lot of the folks Trump has surrounded himself with these two statements have identical connotations: "North Korea may kill thousands of South Koreans with artillery," and "Brown Asians may kill thousands of other brown Asians with artillery." I'm 100% positive that there are people in this administration whose private response to statements like that is "you say that as if it's a bad thing?"

Kim Jong Nam, Un's half brother, was assassinated with VX nerve agent. He was exiled to Macau where he was protected by the Chinese government, and speculated to be kept around by the Chinese as a potential puppet leader if they decided to remove Kim Jong Un. Because he was Kim Jong Il's eldest son, he might be an acceptable leader- the juche ideology claims blood descent from gods or something, and he is in the royal lineage.

How likely is it that China approved the assassination, really?

A very good point. Following that train of thought I would usually look at 'who benefits' and be content with thinking some Western country would have been responsable but the assassination method was just very atypical.

I’m not sure why you’re being downvoted. I also agree that it’s hard to see what China’s angle is with NK. It makes sense that Kim is a useful idiot for them and for Putin to rattle the US cage, but at some point it’s just too risky and both those countries share a border with NK.

At what point does Kim become a liability for China or possibly Putin? These seem like the wrong people to be on the wrong side of and unless those guys are OK with his current actions Trump’s “suicide mission” assessment actually sounds accurate.

All of this points to the fizzle you speak of... surely Kim’s masters are going to rein him in.

> You realize North Korea can't take a dump without China saying so, right?

Do you have any backup for that statement?

Even if we are to believe North Korea makes its own choices, surely it must still follow that if China puts a slow but continuously growing food/energy/cash squeeze on North Korea, that will get them almost anything.

I believe North Korea's dependence on China is a well known fact and the more important aspect. If I posit that influence is much larger than widely accepted, that's actually not important. What is easily provable is whether this 'explosive situation' will fizzle or not - time will tell.

Edit: wording

>This is going to fizzle just like all the previous scary saber-rattling (Iran, Ukraine, etc etc)

Criminal prosecution over Russia's slaughter of civilians on MH17 is coming along nicely.

Talking about it isn't saber-rattling. Talking about it is discussing how Russia invaded Crimea and started a war in Ukraine violently overthrowing local authorities, leading to the downing of a civilian airliner.

I am sorry that Ukrainian people have been suffering war on account of geopolitics.

>war on account of geopolitics.

Russia invaded Crimea with military troops, overthrowing local government. Forces they funneled military hardware to in Ukraine then used a BUK anti-air system on a civilian airliner that had it's transponder on.

Don't try to dismiss this as "geopolitics" as if it was some nebulous unknowable cloud that removes Russia's culpability in the murder of civilians during war aggression.

The victims of MH17 were international[1]. This is not a case of "poor Ukraine suffering under a mysterious cloud of geopolitics."

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/18/mh17-anniversa...