There is a possible ‘win’ - if a clear & open referendum is held, and the results do not give independence a clear mandate.

Both the lose-lose paths - and the government’s current actions - seem to presume independence would win that mandate in a fair vote. This was never presumed until the government started acting like it was.

This is a conditional and temporary win. It legitimizes the referendum path meaning Catalonia may try it again in a few years and other regions may attempt the same.

Which shows the futility of trying to bend the will of a people peacefully committed to self determination.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. -- Gandhi

So has the Spanish state moved to the third phase and enabled the fourth?

If there are positive results then those people have chosen independence. So let them be independent. Anything else is despotism.

They didn't even tried to campaign for the NO.