A slot machine is known to give a 200% ROI and allow a single pull each day. You play this slot machine every day for 500 days, until you notice it stops rewarding you.

Then someone says: "Look I told you so, I've been telling everyone for 2000 days now: This slot machine will crash one day!". And you say: "Ok. You were right. Guess the party couldn't last forever. Thanks for the warning!". Out of habit you play for 30 more days, but the rewards stay gone, so you exit with some nice profit.

Meanwhile, the other person knew of the existence of a highly profitable slot machine, while it was still profitable, but never actually played it, because they feared that one day it may not be profitable anymore.

This isn't quite right. To stick with the casino example, a large number of Bitcoin speculators are "letting it ride." They've won a bunch of times, and they continue to bet more and more money.

Your example only works if you are regularly selling BTC as its worth increases. If you're just holding onto it, your gains are never realized.

My investment horizon is a bit more than 530 days.