> Bitcoin is the conservative investment.

Now this is what I come to HN in the morning for.

I talk to these people all the time. Them: "I KMOW stock XXX is going to be at price YYY in time Z." Me: "How much have you invested in stock XXX?" Them: "Oh nothing yet".

If you "invested" in bitcoin wouldn't you keep talking about how great it is?

There's tons of folks on hn betting their shorts on bitcoin and way more exotic things, just that hopefully we can all afford to lose our, uh "investments" ;)

I think he means within the context of the Cryptocurrency market, which he is pretty correct on.

Many other coins have gone up 2x, 5x, even 10x in the last weeks/months.

Bitcoin going from 4K to 20K in 4 years (ie 5x) is relatively tame.

I see things this way as well.

Options and derivatives are risky. A merely volatile asset that never expires is pretty conservative in comparison.

> I think that it will go to like 20k in the next 4 years

Why like 20k (as opposed to like 100k or like 1k)?

Because nobody knows. This has literally never happened before.

99% of Bitcoins are being held by people expecting to sell it to someone else for more than they bought it for. That doesn't seem to be changing.

You just have to do a calculation involving the number of people on the planet to figure out when the supply of new suckers runs dry and the price crashes.

Doesn't that assume every person on the planet will own some BTC before it crashes? It also assumes the rate new people start buying BTC is constant, or even predictable.

The comment was perhaps a satirical take on the "BTC as investment" philosophy's implied endgame.

If more vendors would take BTC, I would gladly buy things using said BTC. I would rather do that than convert to cash and then buy.

If BTC has a good chance of doubling in value over the next few months, then how is it remotely rational to spend it?

Yeah I agree with 20k in 3-5 years. That's conservative. John McAfee said $500k in 3-5 years! Would be nice. :D

McAfee also said he would chop off his penis and eat it if it didn't hit $500k.

I'm bullish on crypto but McAfee is... well something else.