I expect if google had that strength in position, they would. Perhaps that would lead to more fragmentation and less vendors releasing the latest android, leading to a highly dominant maker squashing the others and then having a stronger position in negotiating with google.

Perhaps it would be more desirable to reduce dependency on blobs? What can we do to encourage manufacturers to release source for their hardware? I assume they care about selling hardware and the firmware is just incidental?

Even when full source is available it doesn't really solve the problem. Many of the drivers provided for android socs are very poor quality and would not be allowed in the kernel. Typical problems include not using linux conventions for config parameters(device tree) and duplicating large portions of existing kernel functionality.

Not getting into the tree is a problem because kernel interfaces change all the time. When someone changes a kernel interface they are expected to update all of the affected code, but out-of-tree drivers don't get that.

> If they require kernel X, and a manufacturer doesn't support it, they'll either get their shit together, or they'll get left behind.

This leaves Google with a version of Android that does not run on anything. There are less than a handful of relevant SoM manufacturers that are capable of delivering consumer grade SoMs capable of running hardware accelerated Android; Google can not alienate these.

Apple seems to have no problem keeping drivers/blobs for their hardware working when they release new versions of iOS. Sure, they do have the advantage of tight control over their hardware and core software, and a vastly smaller number of pieces of hardware to target, but in that way they're not that much different than any random Android vendor, hardware-wise. Sony (for example) is perfectly capable of only choosing vendors that can keep up with kernel versions, or at least vendors that will be open enough with them (not even with the public, just Sony) so that Sony can hire a software team to keep things up to date.

But they don't care enough about this sort of thing (unlike Apple), and no one (such as Google) is forcing them, so it won't get done unless they see an economic upside.

For sure Google can do it, what would they do, sell handsets with their own OS, based on a fork from GNU/Linux?

It has worked quite well for those that tried.

What would they do? Sell handsets with a years-old Android, of course. Experience shows that the average customer doesn't give a shit about Android versions.

Which in such scenario wouldn't be able to talk to Google Play Service servers any longer, if Google was actually serious about doing it.

It also leaves those manufacturers without anything to put on their hardware.

I would think they would start to take things more seriously at that point.

I'm insure about who has the upper hand, but I feel like SoM manufacturers know what they are doing and are where they are based on merit whereas Android is there because it was available when it mattered and gained momentum, not because of any technical merit. Android as a developer ecosystem is a train wreck. I have better tooling for deeply embedded bare metal platforms than I have for Android userspace applications.