You are dead on. The problem is incentives. There is no technical solution to solve the issue of OEMs not wanting to spend time/resources on updating older phones.
Treble will help out LineageOS, CopperheadOS, and XDA devs. But it won't improve the update cycles for OEMs when their business (ie profit aims) pressures them to limit development resources to new phones.
Re:Hardening the Kernel in Android Oreo
by bingobob on Thursday August 31, 2017 @03:00AM
(#15138660)
but wouldn't treble allow for there custom Android to be updated across there fleet of devices where currently each product has to get its custom build with drivers etc.
Re:Hardening the Kernel in Android Oreo
by limeblack on Thursday August 31, 2017 @12:26PM
(#15141421)
Yes this is how I interpreted it but I'm sure the other people here probably know much more which leads me to believe that must not be the case.
Re:Hardening the Kernel in Android Oreo
by limeblack on Wednesday August 30, 2017 @05:28PM
(#15136197)
That's not what this top comment says https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15066729 at least that's how I interpreted it.
http://androidbackstage.blogspot.de/2017/08/episode-75-proje...
Key points:
1 - Google will keep on allowing OEMs to customize Android
2 - OEMs will keep being responsible for delivering updates
3 - OEMs are advised to push fixes upstream and provide updates
Given that they are just advised, and not required to act accordingly, do you want to bet how many will provide Treble updates instead of selling new handsets?