Re:Wall Street Banks Warn Downturn Is Coming
by anonu on Wednesday August 23, 2017 @12:32PM
(#15082877)
> Does anyone who understands finance have any insight on why this pattern seems so predictable?
I think the only thing that is predictable is that there is some sort of cyclical event - where neither the frequency nor the amplitude is known. The peak-to-trough or trough-to-peak magnitude is not predictable and neither is the timing - unless you have some crystal ball.
The doomsday-ers will always beat the drums of fear. People will ignore them until there's an actual downturn - then we'll all point to them and marvel at their genius. Being a bit cynical, but I've seen this play out twice before in my professional career.
I think the only thing that is predictable is that there is some sort of cyclical event - where neither the frequency nor the amplitude is known. The peak-to-trough or trough-to-peak magnitude is not predictable and neither is the timing - unless you have some crystal ball.
The doomsday-ers will always beat the drums of fear. People will ignore them until there's an actual downturn - then we'll all point to them and marvel at their genius. Being a bit cynical, but I've seen this play out twice before in my professional career.