Unless people see the code of conduct as enough social reason to move development to the fork.

Then there will be a technical reason because that's where the good new development happens.

It's not clear to my enough people loved over for that to be true. I'm not sure I even have a grasp on what the incident that trigger this was.

It would be naive to think that people move from x.y.z because of social reason. Most people don't care about those issues.

I was referring to the developers. For them the social dynamics of the project are very important.

End users will (usually) go wherever the software is better.