Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could have 100% accuracy?

Posted by raheemm on Sunday July 11, 2010 @10:18PM
from the ask-hn dept.

For those wondering what I am talking about see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus<p>I am just amazed that Paul the octopus had a 100% accuracy with his predictions for the world cup matches. I am wondering what is the probability of that?<p>Could there be other explanations for Paul's forecasting accuracy? It may seem silly but 7 predictions in a row are accurate? Isn't that highly unusual?

( 11 comments | 3 points | on HN )

Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by stoney on Monday July 12, 2010 @01:41AM (#1506949)

Derren Brown did a stunt where he flipped a coin and got heads ten times in a row, which is even less likely than Paul the Octopus's 8 in a row success. How did Derren do it? He made lots and lots of attempts. The point is that while Paul the Octopus was improbably successful, how many other world cup predictors tried and failed very early on? Selection bias in action.

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Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by phe on Sunday July 11, 2010 @11:51PM (#1506740)

It was 8 in a row for the 2010 World Cup which would lead to the odds being 0.5^8 or 0.39%.

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Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by sdesol on Sunday July 11, 2010 @10:35PM (#1506597)

It's statistically unlikely .5 * .5 * .5 ... but it's not magical.

To answer your question, it depends on how many guesses he makes.

I'm more curious about how the food was placed in the containers. Was it more visible in one container? Does Paul have a preference with regards to left or right.

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Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by iacvlvs on Monday July 12, 2010 @02:12AM (#1507006)

I heard someone mention that octopodes are attracted to the colour red. I don't know if that's true, but it would explain why Paul picked the German flag, with its red central stripe, and the Spanish flag, with more red than Germany's.

Or maybe he's in league with the Great Old Ones...

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Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by philwelch on Monday July 12, 2010 @03:30PM (#1509101)

It's not true. Octopus are colorblind.

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Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by philwelch on Monday July 12, 2010 @03:30PM (#1509105)

There's a possibility that after he started being well-known, the players gave him more credit than he was worth and got psyched up, or psyched out, by his predictions.

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Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by photon_off on Tuesday July 13, 2010 @10:24AM (#1511441)

It certainly is true that there is a possibility. However, I'd suspect that the impact a voting octopus has on players and the overall outcome of a game where millions of people are stakeholders is very slight to say the least.

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Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by forcetenhen on Monday July 12, 2010 @10:10AM (#1507802)

He made some wrong predictions 2 years ago for the European Championships so he's not infallible, though he appears to be getting much better :)

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Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by WalterGR on Sunday July 11, 2010 @10:56PM (#1506643)

Did you not read the Wikipedia article you linked to? It seems to answer your questions.

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Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by raheemm on Monday July 12, 2010 @12:26AM (#1506805)

Yes I ended up reading it more fully after submitting my question here :)

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Re:Ask HN: What are the chances that Paul the Octopus could ... by grasshoper on Monday July 12, 2010 @01:25AM (#1506918)

It's easy when you can see the future.

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