I modeled traffic. I sold my company and retired, years ago. People don't realize how complicated traffic really is. It's a chaotic system, of sorts. You can tease out patterns with some work.

Anyhow, to add to your point, you can model all you want - but some drunk is going to reverse the wrong way down a one way street.

One of these days, maybe I'll get around to putting my experiences into giant walls of text.

I would love to hear more

I'll see about getting some writing started. I keep getting asked to write a book.

It was a pretty wild ride. I have a Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics and actually did my research with vehicular traffic because the date was free. I actually expected to remain in academia, but was given the chance to contract with a government agency, even before I'd done my defense.

Basically, I helped take the art of traffic modeling to the computer age. I say helped because I stood on the shoulders of giants.

I'd eventually be able to hire competent programmers and a real IT staff. Eventually we'd model pedestrian traffic, in addition to vehicular traffic. We would also sell solutions that companies could implement on their own.

The recession hit. The US gov announced they were going to invest billions in highway infrastructure. This made the company quite valuable and I was given an exceptionally good offer. So, I sold it and don't regret that decision at all. I'm happily retired and find lots of things to keep me amused.

There is a whole lot more to the story but that's the gist of it. I'm the same KGIII you may have seen on Slashdot.

Fascinating story. Thank you for sharing! How long did it take you to build this company from start to exit?

What were some of the toughest moments you experienced?

And what advice would you give to people who want to build their own companies in transportation/logistics fields? (I know - may not be exactly your area but there may be some cross-sector knowledge sharing at play here!).

I started it, unofficially, in 1991. The sale was finalized in late 2007. I started with loaned equipment from DEC, on an empty factory floor, with just myself and a fellow grad. He was a CS grad and we would later part peacefully. He never had ownership.

My toughest moments were people related. I never took any fancy business course that taught me how to manage people. I tried to micromanage and had a hard time letting go.

Eventually, we'd have three offices along the East Coast and a satellite office in the middle of the country. We had about 235 employees when i sold. What I learned was to stop trusting vendors.

I learned that I'd hired these people to do things that I could not do. If I could have dne them, I'd have not needed to hire them. Give them the tools they ask for, the room to do what they need, and clear goals.

They were different times. It was a Wild West sort of environment. It was hard enough getting engineers and programmers to wear shoes and a lot like herding cats. But, give them freedom and respect. Remember, you hired them because they were the very best you could find and they can do things you can not.

Advice? Be in the right place, at the right time, with specific skills, and in a position to take risks. Had I been unable to complete my first contract, the penalties were great enough that I'd still be paying them off - slight exaggeration.

It's pithy to say study hard and work hard, but that helps. I worked my ass off, often putting in 16 hour days. I'd continue to do this, even after being the sole custodial parent for my two kids. My ex wife is a bit of a mess. I missed a lot of their youth and they were often home with a girlfriend or a nanny.

But, find something that is missing and do it. Find something that is hard, and do it better. Right now, things look like a more intensive struggle for efficiency. How can you make transportation/logistics more efficient? How can you make it better? What services are lacking?

In my case, there weren't even many traffic engineers back then. The field, as applied by computers, was very young. The existent algorithms didn't scale or translate well to computers. I'm a horrible programmer, but I am a mathematician. I fixed that.

Similar processes applied to fleet management and to pedestrian traffic. Similar processes relate to outflow of people in buildings such as skyscrapers, shopping malls, and arenas. Even certain outdoor events need evacuation plans, for which modeling pedestrian behavior is important. Even your grocery store has probably modeled how you will move through it.

We had more work than we could do. I couldn't hire enough people and we just kept growing. I liked field work, so I tried to get as much time out in the field as I could. It also meant that I was on-site, a lot. I kinda hate dealing with government workers. They mean well, but they are tied to a dysfunctional environment.

Anyhow, soft skills matter. Be nice, polite, and an active listener. Listen for what they need, not what they are telling you they want. Be ready to try to provide both.

Sorry for the verbosity and disjointed post. I don't have words of wisdom, only my own experiences. I hate to admit it, but going to a good school probably helped a great deal initially. I went to MIT and just that was enough to open the doors. DEC literally loaned me equipment, both during grad work and to start the business. MDOT gave me loads of help and even followed my research from a fairly early point.

I'm open to continued responses, but I don't want to derail the thread too much.

Thank you very much for all the good advice. It didn't feel patronising and I admire the humble tone of your writing.

You are definitely right about being at the right place at the right time, and making sure you have the skills to do it better than others.

I have a pure software engineering degree (Masters) and been teaching myself deep learning lately. I am currently undertaking the Udacity self-driving car engineer nanodegree as as it is a great way to pick up skills in computer vision, machine learning and the automotive industry space. I am confident those skills will be valuable if I find the right opportunity.

Great post, I appreciate contributions like these to the HN community.

  > Be in the right place, at the right time, with specific skills, and in a position to take risks.

You can't enter the industry but I can...

So where would you start looking? Or do you think the 90s was a different environment where you could solve a problem on your own. Now to improve efficiency, do you need the support/funding of an established company?

I would look at improving navigation efficiencies for self driving cars, as individual units and collectively.

Super interesting--thanks for the writeup. Keen on reading more if you do write the book!

I second that! Book or blog posts would be great :)

This is really interesting! Thanks for sharing. Is the vehicular traffic data you're referring to at the state level (i.e. do individual states report on it)? Or is it available for all states? And can anyone access it or is it only free for academic licenses?

Various States will have varied rules, but it is generally free. The Feds will also have stats for interstate routes.

In my case, the data was existent. I'd later collect data. Data is not just throughout, but even contains data from things like a reflectometer, sign frequency, and adjustments for specific locations.

The data collected is, for this sort of thing, paid for by the municipality and can be examined at your local municipality, where applicable. The specific department, and location, will vary but our reports were public information. Your department of transportation has copies, where applicable.

I didn't do much in the way of design. I modeled. This is what will happen if you do this, this is what will happen if you do that, and if you want these results you should consider doing these things. They don't always listen.

We also did modeling for things like disasters. A recent example would be the bridge collapse in Atlanta, GA. Most of the public thought it was going to be a nightmare. I actually had people argue with me and tell me I didn't know what I was talking about. No, they already have plans on file to deal with the expected congestion from just such an occurrence.

Of course, those plans are usually a bit out of date... In their defense, it's not an inexpensive process. Given the ubiquity of compute cycles, many municipalities are taking some of this in-house.

Your local planning board should be a good start, if you want to learn about your specific area.

Note: I have been out of the industry for about a decade. I am contractually barred from entering the industry again, in any capacity. I do try to keep up with the tech, but that's purely out of curiosity. It is no longer a scholarly or professional pursuit.

Also, any reports we filed are almost certainly still around. They are probably buried in a closet, however. I am not actually sure how municipalities function as well as they do. They are, almost without fail, very disorganized.

Someday, I'll tell you about The Font People. Yes, we even quantify fonts as an impact factor. However, Font People are some of the most unusual characters I've ever met - all of them.

I do miss the data collection and research. But, I haven't worn pants all day. So, it's an acceptable trade off.

I am curious: do you know anything about rail?

Yes. However, do I know enough to be of any assistance? Maybe. Am I an authoritative source in regards to rail transport? No.

But, if you have a question - I may know. I have done quite a bit of reading, but no academic research and no publications with regards to rail transport.

I am trying to figure out how to proceed forward with this:

http://micheleincalifornia.blogspot.com/2017/07/my-old-colle...

http://solanorail.blogspot.com

Perhaps one day while incredibly bored and procrastinating on the decision of pants or no pants, you could look it over, die laughing and send me an email. My email address is in my profile.

Thank you for replying.

Despite gaps between technology and the real-world, there is still tremendous value to be had by technology, if you combined it with the real-world, i.e. humans.

Routing algorithms can come up with extremely efficient routes, which can serve as a starting point for the human route planner to fix (to account for real-world knowledge).

Consider the alternative where the human route planner starts from scratch.

UPS' automated routing system acts a partner with human drivers working to beat the route recommendations.

https://www.fastcompany.com/3004319/brown-down-ups-drivers-v...

Another example: a lot of rural areas have patches of gravel roads. It's not obvious from Google maps where the roads go from paved to gravel (and they sometimes do it in random sections).

Naively looking at a map, you'd think a roundabout route had potential to be shorter, but not realize the road was gravel.

I imagine many data sets track surface.

Surface data in OpenStreetMap is pretty incomplete, but it is easy to add to a road and is well used when present (cycle routing is a popular use of OSM and avoiding soft and uneven surfaces is handy for cycle routing).

In Colorado this has been mapped https://coloradogravelroads.com/

In rural areas, school buses drive on gravel. Where I grew up, the buses were speed limited by law, so the speed on gravel is often the same as on the highway. Road surface might not matter as much as you think.

In rural areas there are a lot of minimum maintenance roads. Legally they are roads and you can drive on them all you want. However if you don't have 4 wheel drive you shouldn't drive on them, even with 4 wheel drive there are times when you won't make it. A bus should never drive on these roads, and google does not know which these roads are - as I've discovered when I had to rescue someone who blindly followed google maps.

Sure, I guess I was trying to comment specifically on gravel. You will need accurate maps for this to work, but I think that is basically a given. A human route planner will also need to have accurate maps.

A local human bus driver doesn't need the map, they know the route and the bad road areas.

You're all neglecting the biggest problem of all - the driver. All of this work is moot if Dorthy, who's been driving the same route for 40 years, will not change the route. And you can't get rid of Dorthy because there's nobody to replace her in Dinkysville, Flyoverstate.

There are any number of reasons for bus drivers to have to change, from route optimization to school redistricting to, back in the old days, having to pick up all the children, not just the White children. People aren't horses. They can accept change.

The kids change, too. Not too many kids go to primary school for 40 years while living at the same place.

I get the point you're making, there's always some human resistance to new systems but it's something you manage through. It's not a show stopper.