I have to agree that this argument is utterly unconvincing, even as a reason to believe FLT may be true intuitively. It simply dismisses with a wink and a nod the idea that there might be one single counterexample out there for one single exponent (or, a finite number of counterexamples for a finite number of exponents). In other words, it does nothing to argue against the set of counterexamples being of measure 0. Indeed, until Wiles finally proved FLT, the relative lack of progress on Siegel's conjecture on the infinitude of regular primes would tend to lend support to the view that a counterexample might exist somewhere out there.