Coinbase and others saying they'll "wait and see" is really just another bump on a long road of screwing users out of funds. They once again profit off of later price information - and in this case can even decide to argue that they held the assets and so own the BCH - essentially just earning another piece of their users' pies.
I'm amazed people still stick with Coinbase. Any exchange that even nominally 'puts users first' (i.e. isn't trying to screw them for profit) has offered withdrawal of BCH from the get-go. Though OTOH anyone who has seen how Coinbase operates with price fluctuations and so on would have guessed they'd end up doing this for the fork.
Pick your partners wisely folks. :)
It's just very unlikely this could work. Possible, but very unlikely.
Edit: Also, if you have a very large amount of coins, you probably want to sell it off slowly, instead of tanking the market in one go. This makes it even more difficult since if you're caught reversing the first few transactions, your account will be flagged.
If you have >51% of the mining power, you can overpower the rest of the network. Simply pick a block in the past and start mining from there, ignoring everyone else. With >51% of the hashrate you _will_ overcome the rest of the network and enforce your new chain.
They can do it in secret. Build a secret parallel chain while they transact, then release the chain after they've got their BTC.
And 51% is not "insane". It's absolutely tiny. As I said, _any_ of the large pools could do it, right now.
How can you have more than one pool, each with more than half the power?
EDIT: OK I see where you're coming from I think... you mean any of the pools could 51% the forked branch, right?
Imagine a new sport called zoccer. It's just like regular soccer, but if a team scores 5 goals within the 90 minutes, they automatically win the match.
Right now there are only a few small teams playing. But Nike has said they are willing to sponsor a tournament, if there is enough interest.
At any point, Barcelona or Manchester United or Real Madrid or Chelsea or AC Milan or any other large soccer team team can just say "we are now a zoccer club" and swoop in take Nike's money.
They all have the power to switch and dominate the new scene.
You don't need to mine 6 blocks in a row against the other miners, you just need to have a longer chain. So you simply fork the chain, and then submit that as the "real" chain.
With 60% of the mining power and a 6 block deficit, you'd overtake the main chain in 120 minutes (approx; 12 blocks), since you're making up half a block of deficit per block they mine.
If you really had 60% of the mining power, you could undo 3 days of transactions in about a week of mining.
Exchanges can quite easily protect themselves.
All they have to do is increase the confirmation time before they "accept" coins.
The longer you wait, the more secure your coins are. I would suspect that a day is easily enough time to be confident that a double spend won't happen.
Sure, you can build a longer blockchain, but nothing forces other people to accept that blockchain.
IE, people can checkpoint the chain.
Also, if 51% attacks consistently started to happen, that would cause the price if that chain to plummet to 0.
There is no point stealing money that is worth 0.
1) I'm a long time miner who owns a massive wealth of Bitcoins.
2) I fund some developers to create a hardfork.
3) I dedicate a small percentage of my mining power to prop up the new coin.
4) Coinbase adds support for the new coin.
5) I deposit all my new split coins at Coinbase, trade for BTC, and withdraw BTC.
6) Using the rest of my mining power I then reverse the depositing transactions to Coinbase by double spending.
7) Profit.
I think it's positively absurd that _any_ exchange is supporting BCH.
But to each their own peril.