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Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by gnu8 on Monday July 31, 2017 @10:34PM (#14897506)
Seems like a sure thing to short the piss out of an enterprise like this and wage a comprehensive campaign of activism and consumer education against it. With rationality on your side, how could you lose?
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by dragonwriter on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @02:30AM (#14898352)
> With rationality on your side, how could you lose?

You could lose because the rational choice model does not accurately model human behavior in the real world; people don't act based on perfect information, in part because even when presented with correct information, they are likely to reject it if it doesn't fit their pre-existing world view.

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by mbgilliland on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @09:38AM (#14900441)
That has very little to do with the rational choice model. Rational choice agrees that people don't act on perfect information. It also agrees that even when given good information, individuals don't necessarily believe it. All RCT really boils down to is the fairly uncontroversial statement that people act in accordance with their actual preferences (even if their preferences should be different, the actions are not well-calculated to achieve their goals, or they say they have different preferences).
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by dragonwriter on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @11:51AM (#14902010)
> Rational choice agrees that people don't act on perfect information

No, full rational choice theory posits that people do behave in a way which maximizes actual (not expected) net utility, or, in more detail, as if:

(1) They have a coherent “utility function” mapping each potential path through time that might be taken to a unidimensional, real-number utility value.

(2) They have perfect knowledge of the outcome (path through time), or at least resulting utility value, produced by every possible option with every decision they make,

(3) They consistently choose the option that maximizes utility.

There are more limited modifications of rational choice theory that attempt, with varying degrees of success, to close the predictive gap between full rational choice theory and actual behavior resulting from the fact that humans do not behave “rationally” in the sense of rational choice theory, but they aren't what is involved with the question “how can you lose when rationality is on your side?” asked upthread.

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by Finnucane on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @09:45AM (#14900488)
So 'rational choice theory' should be called 'fleeting whim choice theory.'
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by coaxial on Monday July 31, 2017 @10:37PM (#14897528)
> with rationality on your side, how could you lose?

Look at south Africa, multi vitamins, and hiv/aids denialism. It's pretty fascinating, human toll aside.

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by richardkeller on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @06:06AM (#14899185)
South Africa is hardly the only country where multivitamins are common. If rationality were the only metric for decision making, I would expect homeopathy to be far less common globally than it is today.

As for Aids denialism, South Africa suffers from a case of cultural antiestablishmentism, particularly in the context of Western medicine. Thankfully our government has stepped up in recent years, and actively promotes HIV/Aids education these days.

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by Overtonwindow on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @08:33AM (#14899956)
Homeopathy is the beloved little black sheep of natural health. I would say half of natural health industry people don't believe in it, know it doesn't work, but they have to go along with it. Otherwise, to admit (as countless studies, and the federal government have done) that homeopathy is completely without merit, would threaten the entire house of cards that natural health is built upon. I remember last year when the FTC announced their enforcement action on homeopathic OTC drugs, there was an unusual silence from the natural health community. Almost a shrug. From the inside it was laughable at the lack of concern for homeopathy's future.
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Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by monochromatic on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @09:01AM (#14900182)
Climate change skepticism does not belong in the same bucket as anti-vaccination.
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by ajuc on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @09:56AM (#14900596)
Why? Both beliefs are held against current scientific consensus and have only a few supporting studies, while vast majority of studies support the contrary.

You could argue that technically "climate change scepticism" only means you don't know, but in practice climate change sceptics argue for political actions (or inaction) basing on their (lack of) beliefs.

Similarly I can be anti-vacc without claiming "vaccines cause autism". just claiming "I'm not sure what they cause, so just to be sure don't do it".

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by monochromatic on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @12:44PM (#14902670)
The science in favor of vaccination is very straightforward and well-understood. It's easy to run double-blind tests and determine the truth of the matter.

The science in favor of anthropogenic global warming includes two parts: well-understood physics and chemistry (which is quite trustworthy and is actually science), and a bunch of conflicting computer models of a chaotic and poorly understood system with a huge number of inputs and feedback loops (which I'm not sure why anyone trusts).

This blog post puts it pretty well: http://blog.dilbert.com/post/158778029326/how-to-change-my-b...

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by herbst on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @08:28AM (#14899923)
Don't forget the natural medicine deniers over there! Just because they have a major bullshit industrie does not mean nature never made good medicine.

(I know I just went full circle)

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by sumedh on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @03:16AM (#14898497)
> With rationality on your side, how could you lose?

Do you think rationality can win when the President of the United States says that global warming is a Chinese hoax.

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by ethbro on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @09:47AM (#14900510)
France? Maybe we've come full circle, and it's time for it to lead a second Enlightenment.

And to be accurate, I believe Trump's current position is "global warming is happening, caused by humans, but Paris unfairly advantages other nations over the US."

Which is how all climate agreements look when you're trying to get buy in from developing economies... but at least it's better than hoaxism.

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by CyberDildonics on Monday July 31, 2017 @11:28PM (#14897697)
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

-Keynes

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by jacobush on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @02:07AM (#14898262)
Don't believe all quotes on the internet - Benjamin Franklin
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by diogenescynic on Monday July 31, 2017 @11:13PM (#14897643)
>With rationality on your side, how could you lose?

Hahahhaha. Great joke. Sadly, there are and probably always will be a lot of ignorant/gullible people. As PT Barnum said, "there's a sucker born every minute."

Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by kbenson on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @12:00AM (#14897798)
Given global population growth and birth trends, I wonder if we've reached a sucker every second yet...
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by the_duke on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @03:22AM (#14898525)
Given the current birth rate of over 4 births per second, and considering that almost every newborn will consume nutrients by sucking milk, I'd say that we have reached that milestone a long time ago.
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by hyperbovine on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @07:19AM (#14899522)
Actually, there is no evidence that he ever said this.
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by asdfjklasdfjkl on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @07:48AM (#14899682)
In this instance, I'd say it's an even better quote, then.
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by samdoidge on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @04:44AM (#14898818)
Aristotle realised the rational argument does not always win a long time, and then wrote Poetics.
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by ethbro on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @09:59AM (#14900644)
I always thought there should be a "Being an Adult" mandatory course in US grade school, and one section should be "defense against rhetoric."
Re:One Billion Dollars Short, Bill Ackman, and the Siege Of ... by wcummings on Tuesday August 01, 2017 @10:53AM (#14901222)
Isn't that exactly what Ackman did?