The right way to do it is to write a modular monolith and maintain a loose plan on how to break it up later. Admittedly this is difficult in SV's youth-obsessed culture where "senior" devs have 5 years experience, and staying at a company long enough to understand the long-term repercussions of architectural choices is seen as a black mark on your resume, but on the bright side languages like Elixir/Erlang help you do the right thing more naturally than more traditional languages.
In my experience refactoring microservices only takes a long time if the microservices are badly done, just like refactoring a monolith only takes a long time if the monolith is a horrible piece of spaghetti code.
If refactoring requires modifying multiple microservices then the microservice boundaries and contracts were badly designed at the start. When you have practice drawing boundaries well then refactoring with microservices becomes very fast, as you only have to modify the code of one service and redeploy it.
I think too many microservice enthusiasts have a tendency to claim monoliths always turn into spaghetti code, and monolith enthusiasts claim microservices are always slower and hard to refactor. This is just a sign that neither group of architecture fans knows how to do the other architecture properly, because its possible to build microservices fast and refactor them quickly just like its possible to build a monolith that is clean and scalable.
I had to laugh at that...
And then throw up just a little.
If you have a team that can't make a monolith scale because of kludges, that says more about the team than the monoliths.
Different architectural choices lead to different challenges. Different teams in different organizations will rise to those challenges with different degrees of success. But it's still worth thinking about the trade offs of the different architectures from the perspective of what they make easier and harder.
Which is not at all to say that you're wrong - a long delay in the capability to release something can definitely be an earlier and more severe death knell than friction when trying to grow.
For me personally, I like to see all of: tools that aim to make it easier to modularize from the start, tools that aim to make it easier to modularize an incumbent monolith, and tools that make monoliths work better themselves. I think all of these solve real problems for different teams at different stages of growth and facing different trade offs.