Re:When intuition and math probably look wrong
by bad_user on Tuesday June 29, 2010 @04:04PM
(#1472596)
Yes, but this is wrong ... the sex of the second child is in no way connected to the sex of the first child.
He didn't ask ... what's the sex of the second child? No ... he asked ...
p(boys = 2 | boy >= 1) == p(child = boy)
Choosing a distribution that involves both children in this case is wrong, hence my answer that ordering doesn't matter. 33% is just wrong.
Re:When intuition and math probably look wrong
by NeilCJames on Tuesday June 29, 2010 @04:25PM
(#1472691)
What I wrote is not wrong unless, when you wrote:
"So given 2 children, there are only 3 possibilities ...
boy, boy
girl, girl
boy, girl"
you are asserting that in the absence of any information about the sex of either child, 2 boys is a 1/3 probability, instead of (1/2)*(1/2)= 1/4.
Assuming a coin-flip probability for boy/girl distribution, you get the 1/3 answer if we select for two-child families where at least one child is a boy: [(B,B), (B,G), (G,B)]. If we don't pre-select for having at least one boy, (i.e. if we select the family because we just met the father socially), the probability rises to 1/2, because we have two cases to consider, each with a 1/2 probability: [(B,B), (B,G)], and [(B,B), (G,B)].