Re:Ask HN: What will it take to topple Facebook (if anything)?
by wdewind on Tuesday June 29, 2010 @12:26PM
(#1471891)
Nothing is permanent, of course, and on the web things can change in a flash.
That being said, they are making obvious moves to continue to add to their defensibility. Their understanding and manipulation of the network effect is unparalleled by any other company out there. It will be a long time before they go.
I would suspect the thing that replaces them is nothing we can quite imagine. I do think facebook has probably "won" social networking in the browser space, the company that beats facebook will have to have a product that connects people better, and I would argue one that offers an experience that transcends what is possible in the browser. Within the current browser-based paradigm facebook is extraordinarily competitive and I do not expect them to lose there, but of course that goes without saying. The key to replacing a company like facebook is finding a new space where it is too big to pivot to compete in, and dominating that space. Right now facebook's organization and processes are setup to completely dominate the browser and innovation in that sector (from recruitment to product design). You'd need to force them to shift gears more quickly than they could, and I think a new platform would probably be the best bet.
But anything anyone says on this thread is wild speculation and should be taken with a grain of salt.
That being said, they are making obvious moves to continue to add to their defensibility. Their understanding and manipulation of the network effect is unparalleled by any other company out there. It will be a long time before they go.
I would suspect the thing that replaces them is nothing we can quite imagine. I do think facebook has probably "won" social networking in the browser space, the company that beats facebook will have to have a product that connects people better, and I would argue one that offers an experience that transcends what is possible in the browser. Within the current browser-based paradigm facebook is extraordinarily competitive and I do not expect them to lose there, but of course that goes without saying. The key to replacing a company like facebook is finding a new space where it is too big to pivot to compete in, and dominating that space. Right now facebook's organization and processes are setup to completely dominate the browser and innovation in that sector (from recruitment to product design). You'd need to force them to shift gears more quickly than they could, and I think a new platform would probably be the best bet.
But anything anyone says on this thread is wild speculation and should be taken with a grain of salt.