Maybe it's just a difference in perspective, but I see all these problems and I think, wow, China has come so far DESPITE all these issues, yet there is so much more low hanging fruit to be picked and so much more potential to be obtained. All these problems seem incredibly manageable, and many are being fixed rapidly, and with their resolution growth will speed up even faster.

The question is not how far China has come in recent decades, it is what is going to happen in the future. You seem to be taking the position that it is absolutely impossible that China will get in serious trouble and wind up going backwards.

Why would it? Aside from a black swan like a war or a super disease or something. The common list of problems I see are all problems that China always had and like I said, still grew despite those problems. Every single problem I see is becoming less problematic and any tiny bit of progress on them are tailwinds for growth.

The 'Great Leap Forward' killed more people than the entire population of Canada. And that was only a handful of decades ago. The party that did so maintains an iron grasp on power, and corruption at all levels is rampant.

There are many, many Chinese who are working very hard for the betterment of their country, and there are many, many wonderful things about China. But it is virtually impossible to overestimate the difficulties they are going to be facing in the coming years. Their economic success, by becoming the manufacturing powerhouse of the world, has come at tremendous cost, and is not maintainable in the long term. We live in interesting times.

You still didn't list a single thing :p

Emergentorder's list is a fine start. I didn't see a need to repeat. :)

I recommend watching a few more of the video series that I linked earlier, as well. I've watched several of them since I last posted in this thread, and (for what it's worth) I find his observations accurate and fair, both the good and the bad.

More like it seems relatively (compared to other countries) unlikely.

I don't disagree with that. But I do think the lack of free speech/press/elections is a basic foundational problem which will hamper progress on the rest of these problems.

It probably does hamper progress, but China never had free speech since the cultural revolution so it's not like things can get worse, the free speech situation is still much improved from the 70s and the 90s (the 80s were a rare period of relatively free speech). So any political changes will be yet another turbo boost on the economy.

>so it's not like things can get worse

I admire your optimism, but this has yet to be an accurate statement across the entirety of human civilization.

Lack of free speech brings certain risks, but I don't see any reason that it must necessarily hamper progress. In fact, by simple observation of earth for the last 30 years one could easily come to the opposite conclusion.

> drivers who accidentally hit a pedestrian are actually incentivise to backup to make sure to kill the pedestrians

Why?

Mostly based on a 2015 Slate article which might not be accurate (in terms of proven cases, as opposed to people's familiarity with the concept).

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2...

http://www.snopes.com/chinese-drivers-kill-pedestrians/

Speaking as someone who lived in China for many years: one of the biggest culture-shock differences Westerners (and particularly Americans) experience in Chinese cities is how people will straight up refuse to help strangers they don't know.

This is not because Chinese people are dicks. Frankly, if you're a (white) foreigner, you're going to be treated better than average by almost everyone as it is. But people hold back, because helping other people has the potential to have huge negative consequences if you get involved.

Here in the states, people are amazingly open to helping someone they've never met. This cultural assumption works because everyone 'just knows' that the person helping is not responsible for anything beyond that particular interaction. We even have Good Samaritan laws on the books that ensure that it is legally safe to do your best to render assistance in extreme circumstances.

It is the complete opposite in China. If you help someone, it is assumed that you are taking responsibility for their entire problem. (Yes, I am oversimplifying, there's more to it than this. But this is an accurate general gist.)

I don't know anything about this fellow, but this particular video of his, at least, does an excellent job explaining what is going on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y4vXYfa06k

He is talking about the modern experience, but it is the same as what I remember from the 80's. The only thing I disagree with him about is that I do not see it as a new phenomenon.

I've been in China off and on from 2003-2008, and I've also noticed the phenomenon this video describes whereby people do NOT help out strangers in need, but never really knew the legal why. I always just assumed it was a cultural aspect I was told (can't find the name of it) whereby if you are not part of a Chinese person's social network, then you are effectively irrelevant to them, which was the reason why you should never be offended when people don't wave or smile back at you.

But anyway, I'm not optimistic considering the legal/cultural reasons for the pedestrian issue and the "Broken Vase Scam" in the video will get applied to bigger social challenges.

watching some more of this YouTuber's videos...interesting stuff...autoplay sent me to this other scam described as:

"driving in China can be really frustrating sometimes. Now China has a problem with people baiting each other to break the law so that you can break the law and they can claim a reward. This is blackmail and extortion inCARnate"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7auIEiTRZI

I don't know if that's true or not, but if the penalties described in that article are accurate, I'd say the penalties for killing someone with a vehicle, either from recklessness or malice, are shockingly lenient.

Yeah. My impression is that Chinese penalites for many crimes are out of whack and need to be tuned better so the punishment fits the crime. (Not saying that The West is perfect, but as I said above, I don't think China's legal system is quite as well-refined.)

There was actually quite a lot of discussion on HN on the slate article, with many people who live(d) in China attesting to the truth of the article: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10173395

To me, most of these are works in progress and simply a matter of timing and priority. The others, while they feel very "wrong" when viewed through the eyes of someone raised in our culture, I don't think are necessarily that harmful provided leadership is reasonably benevolent in the aggregate, which is my impression of China.