Re:The Old Are Eating the Young
by throwaway2048 on Wednesday June 14, 2017 @06:42AM
(#14551816)
Its tough to explain why housing costs are exploding all over the country, year upon year, almost everywhere (NOT just popular to move to cities like SF and NY), double digit numbers without asking where all the money is coming from.
I wont deny that cost disease likely has a role in the rising costs of education and healthcare, but I don't think its a controversial statement that rising real estate costs play a role in that too.
Unlike dark matter, we can measure the money. Take the M2 monetary aggregate ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2 ). Unless the US has doubled the amount of resources since the financial crisis, the value of the dollars should be reducing vs goods or assets, as the supply of dollars is increasing rapidly.
Yes, and we can also measure the inflation rate, which is pretty flat: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi
So why don't these two line up? I submit two candidate explanations:
a) inflation is actually more an exchange-rate phenomenon, especially vs the dollar, so printing dollars or virtual M2 dollars makes remarkably little difference;
b) CPI does a poor job of capturing cost-of-living due to housing.
This is like the "dark matter" theory of the universe, but without any evidence.
(The conventional explanation for health and education cost increases is "Baumol cost disease" due to non-automation.)