Antarctica’s potential collapse could damage coastal cities across the globe

Re:Antarctica’s potential collapse could damage coastal citi... by mirimir on Monday May 22, 2017 @08:18AM (#14392922)

Climate models back in the 70s were very crude. There were only about two decades of atmospheric CO2 measurements. And, as I recall, predictions were stated with far greater uncertainty. So I wouldn't be surprised if some high-end estimates are clearly wrong by now.

Edit: But maybe initial models were decent enough:

The First Climate Model Turns 50, And Predicted Global Warming Almost Perfectly

http://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2017/03/15/the-f...

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Re:Antarctica’s potential collapse could damage coastal citi... by flukus on Monday May 22, 2017 @08:39AM (#14393040)

> And, as I recall, predictions were stated with far greater uncertainty.

The bigger problem is people taking the upper bound of that uncertainty and concluding they were wrong because reality turned out to not be near the upper bound. Kind of like how political polls are "wrong", even when the result falls within the margin of error.

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Re:Antarctica’s potential collapse could damage coastal citi... by mirimir on Monday May 22, 2017 @09:19AM (#14393293)

True. But some writers (even science writers) sensationalize by focusing on upper-bound estimates. And most people never see primary sources, even abstracts or executive summaries.

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Re:Antarctica’s potential collapse could damage coastal citi... by flukus on Monday May 22, 2017 @06:47PM (#14397491)

In headlines maybe, the articles almost always include phrases like "as early as 20xx" that communicate the uncertainty.

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