1. Uber will be first to market with driverless car technology. That is, it will beat Waymo, all the actual car companies, Apple, Tesla, and 100 other startups.

2. Given 1, Uber's driverless car technology is a durable technological advantage (ie, even if it's first to market, that doesn't matter much if Waymo follows it to market 3 months later). Note that we are at this point stipulating that this technological challenge is doable with a team that you spun up out of nothing a couple of years ago, as not-the-best-resourced team on the block.

3. Given 2, the legal issues with driverless cars are resolved well enough that Uber has a viable business.

4. Given 3, Uber can successfully raise money for an incredible capital expenditure (how many cars are we talking here? 1,000,000, very conservatively? At $20,000 ea, very conservatively? So $20B investment), and then handle that kind of capital investment.

5. Given 4, build up all the supporting infrastructure for this business (parking, local cleaning, etc.)

6. Given 5, this all happens within Uber's operational runway (like, starts within 3-5 years, finishes within 10 or so)?

Personally, I'd put the odds of this at: 10% for 1 * 10% for 2 * 90% for 3 * 80% for 4 * 70% for 5 * 20% for 6 = roughly 0.1%.

But even if you're way more bullish on Uber than I am, can anyone really argue for more than 50% for 1 * 50% for 2 * 90% for 3 * 95% for 4 * 95% for 5 * 80% for 6? That's still only 16%.