Never discount Microsoft, if only for the sole reason that they'll just throw infinite amounts of money just to be relevant. For example: Xbox and Zune.

I don't disagree with your point in theory but I have to wonder about Microsoft. I mean, they did pour a bunch of money and time into Zune and it didn't work. Last Christmas NPD reported Zune taking 10% of the units sold and that's pathetic. That's at the "My grandparents bought me a Zune because they don't know what an iPod is" level of sales.

The most telling point regarding their phone platform is this: I'm a C# developer. I'm in love with Silverlight as a technology. Yet I have no interest in the new Windows phone platform. That says something big about their chances IMHO

I think Zune only had 10% market share for the first year or two. They dropped to 2% before Zune HD came out...so I'm betting they are at around 5% right now. Yeah it's not that good, but if they ever end up solidly at 10% market share again and stay there, I'll be impressed. I guess we're looking at it from different sides, but I see 10% as an okay done job. Also I think if they hit that, along with what they did with Xbox/360, the future doesn't look so bad for Windows Phone OS's prospects.

Having played with their new "Kin" line, I can confidently discount them (unless they make some serious changes in strategy). I was met with a device that made little sense, had no clear organization of tools and apps, and had a HORRID UI. I'm an iOS fan, but I would pick an Android phone over M$'s offering any day.

But as many have said Microsoft is not targeting Kin at the type of person who would visit HN. It's targeted at the teen market that bought sidekicks in droves and I'm sorry but if you look back at the sidekick it's UI was pretty horrid too (and it's technology was far inferior to boot)

The moment you treat teens as inferior customers, you've lost. They're more adept at this stuff than we are, and adopt winning technologies faster. They only adopted Sidekick because it was an easier phone for text messaging than the others.

Selling Kin to a generation that's now used to the iPhone and Android is throwing money down a hole.

I'm not sure it is treating them as inferior consumers as much as it's seeing what they value. Teenagers are generally self involved. They aren't information consumers except when that information involves their immediate surroundings (aka gossip, updates from friends, etc...)

The iPhone and Android are all about information consumption. Check your e-mail, superior web browsing, news, weather, stocks, etc... Most of which, I'd assume, is of little value to a teen (even if they're in to celebrity gossip the Flash-less iPhone isn't going to do much for them)

Again, I'm not a teen. I don't know if the Kin appeals to them. But I can see how they'd have different values and how something that appeals to me (iPhone/Android) might not appeal to them.

iPhone and Android are consumption devices?

Phone calls, tweets/twitpics, facebook posts, camera and movie capture, movie editing, audio recording, skype, video chat, geolocation capture, and augmented video are all examples of things people are using right now on these devices. None of them are consumption apps. They generate content.