Re:Why Deutsche Bundesbank had to promise to leave 1200 tons...
by maxander on Sunday April 30, 2017 @03:08PM
(#14233277)
Even if the Fed "lost" some of the gold (which would be a hilarious story), does it really matter? There has to be some liability clause in whatever agreement put the gold in the Fed's hands to begin with- if they lose track of Germany's property (or claim to have, or whatever), they're obligated to pay Germany back for it. Revealing that would be a gigantic embarrassment, sure, but primarily only concerning the American financial system's competence in running vaults. The U.S. budget could handle the payout in dollars, and Germany could take their payment and use it to buy another pile of gold if they like. Contrary to the ideas of the article author, ownership isn't a physical process, so all the speculation as to where some particular collection of element 79 resides should be irrelevant to the economic situation.
Re:Why Deutsche Bundesbank had to promise to leave 1200 tons...
by BatFastard on Sunday April 30, 2017 @03:31PM
(#14233390)
1200 tons of gold is worth around 44 Billion, a trivial amount of money as far the US government is worth. So the idea that it would be stolen by the government is ludicrous.
Re:Why Deutsche Bundesbank had to promise to leave 1200 tons...
by chmod775 on Sunday April 30, 2017 @04:56PM
(#14233782)
You can't just try to buy 1200 tons of gold and expect to get the current "exchange rate" for all of it. You will be paying massively more as you buy out the cheapest offers.
NASDAQ claims a gold market volume of barely 5 tons at this time. Good luck buying 1200 tons at a decent price.
Edit: Whoops. I meant to reply to your parent.
Re:Why Deutsche Bundesbank had to promise to leave 1200 tons...
by mcbits on Sunday April 30, 2017 @04:11PM
(#14233569)
$44 billion current US dollars worth of gold can back 10 to 100 times that amount of "money" (depending on how far you stretch the definition of money) in a fractional reserve banking system. It's no trivial amount.
Re:Why Deutsche Bundesbank had to promise to leave 1200 tons...
by thinkloop on Sunday April 30, 2017 @04:30PM
(#14233662)
That's already built into our understanding of what "$44b" is. If not, then all values should be inflated by 10x, which would keep the $44b at the same ratio of the total pie - which is to say nothing.
Re:Why Deutsche Bundesbank had to promise to leave 1200 tons...
by mcbits on Sunday April 30, 2017 @04:52PM
(#14233767)
No, in fact it is not. To help you understand why, if the US were to switch back to a gold-backed currency and somehow do it relatively seamlessly, it would need to find enough gold to back a money supply of about $7 trillion dollars (or $20+ trillion, depending...). All the gold in the world is currently "worth" less than $7 trillion dollars, and the US would be lucky to land 15% of that, or about 25,000 tonnes. In this scenario, that 1,200 tonnes would be worth $336 billion, and probably a lot more because "seamlessly" is a huge assumption.
Re:Why Deutsche Bundesbank had to promise to leave 1200 tons...
by xyzzyz on Sunday April 30, 2017 @08:27PM
(#14234716)
That's completely irrelevant. The issue at hand is whether the US is able to pony up 1200 tons of gold, not whether they can back their whole currency base with gold at current exchange rate.
Re:Why Deutsche Bundesbank had to promise to leave 1200 tons...
by mcbits on Sunday April 30, 2017 @09:17PM
(#14234880)
It's relevant to the hypothetical state stealing enormous quantities of gold from other states. They wouldn't do it to give all the citizens fancy necklaces and dental implants. The reason would be to shore up their currency. The economics of gold changes under that hypothetical scenario, and it's the current market price of gold that is completely irrelevant.
Re:Why Deutsche Bundesbank had to promise to leave 1200 tons...
by thesumofall on Sunday April 30, 2017 @08:29PM
(#14234721)
Replace "gold" in your statement by any other physical asset (silver, shells, rubies, ...) and you realize that this doesn't make much sense. If the world were to switch to a water-based currency and all other uses for gold would disappear 1200 tons of gold would be worthless
His reasoning appears to be, "If the world is, as the Fed presents it, then we should be able get our gold back. But we can't." and then notes agencies that the auditing agency that was aggressively pushing even an accounting of the available gold has gone silent implying they have been made complicit somehow in the conspiracy.
Here on the outside we can't really know what is going on of course. And frankly if it got out that 1200 tons of gold was on the move I could imagine that would be a tasty target even for nation-state level thieves. But I also found it interesting when the Economist and others reported that the Fed was refusing to let auditors verify their gold deposits. That is a question that really needs an answer and we haven't gotten it yet.