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Re:Survivorship Bias by EduardoBautista on Friday April 21, 2017 @10:53AM (#14166104)
That is a terrible example. That's implying that you can just sit on your ass all day and just watch TV and you have a 50% shot at success.
Re:Survivorship Bias by dgritsko on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:02AM (#14166179)
It doesn't seem like that was implied. If I understand correctly, the goal of the illustration was just to emphasize that luck can play a huge factor in one's success (and therefore their "success" in these cases isn't anything that can be learned from or replicated).
Re:Survivorship Bias by 6nf on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:01AM (#14166168)
You still have to flip the coin
Re:Survivorship Bias by EduardoBautista on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:02AM (#14166176)
A much better example would be to have all students run around a 400 meter track with some students having 1 - 100 meter head start.
Re:Survivorship Bias by jerf on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:07AM (#14166223)
No, that would completely miss the point.

This isn't about inequality or privilege, this is about survivorship bias. The entire point is to completely remove all those issues in a way that makes it obvious to everybody that the only possible explanation in this made-up example is blind luck.

In the real world, it isn't all blind luck, but sometimes there are cases where the luck signal does in fact overwhelm everything else, lotteries being a great example.

Re:Survivorship Bias by EduardoBautista on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:26AM (#14166377)
Yes, and these are _extreme_ examples. Examples that try to make success appear to be just luck.
Re:Survivorship Bias by jerf on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:28AM (#14166393)
"The entire point is to completely remove all those issues in a way that makes it obvious to everybody that the only possible explanation in this made-up example is blind luck."
Re:Survivorship Bias by snerbles on Friday April 21, 2017 @01:16PM (#14167416)
Your racetrack analogies are deviating too far from the classroom example. If you want to model selective advantages, give one student additional coins to flip.
Re:Survivorship Bias by devdad on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:07AM (#14166231)
Some students would have to start at 600 meters with led shoes and weights in their hands. And another group should get to start at 200 meters on bikes.
Re:Survivorship Bias by xxs on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:14AM (#14166280)
when I read 'led shoes', I thought of the one that literally have LED on them and flash/glow. Then I realized it was meant to be the lead element (Pb), that's actually pronounced (led)...

Also typing/pronouncing/using 'LED lights' makes for a great tautology. ("Light emitting diode" lights)

English is weird, sometimes.

Re:Survivorship Bias by jdmichal on Friday April 21, 2017 @03:07PM (#14168393)
That's RAS Syndrome -- redundant acronym syndrome syndrome.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAS_syndrome

Re:Survivorship Bias by TeMPOraL on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:09AM (#14166246)
Try 100-200m head start, because 1-10m doesn't appropriately capture how successes compound over time.
Re:Survivorship Bias by cm2012 on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:44AM (#14166559)
LOL at 1-10 meters.
Re:Survivorship Bias by vog on Friday April 21, 2017 @12:49PM (#14167195)
Why do you think so? The coin was flipped multiple (n) times, so the probability of total success is 0.5^n. For 10 coin flips, it is already less than 1/1000.

Alternatively, you can view it as a game that is repeated until one person is left. So the chance of success is 1/n where n is the number of people involved - independent of the random method chosen for selection (coin flip, rolling dices, or whatever).