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Re:Survivorship Bias by arximboldi on Friday April 21, 2017 @06:11AM (#14164271)
> It is not that hard to become a millionaire, way easier than being a salaried person

Sure. If it is not so hard, everyone would do it. If everyone was a millionaire, who would do actual unpleasant work? Who would clean, run hospitals, build infrastructure? Who would work for your startup so you can make money?

Your comment is such an example of survivorship bias!

Capitalism is a competition. You won, good for you. Don't tell the rest they can win too, that's insulting. You won because someone lost.

Re:Survivorship Bias by 989throwaway66 on Friday April 21, 2017 @07:32AM (#14164593)
I am a small business owner, doing unpleasant work. My business has been doing well, exactly because it is unpleasant: a lot of people want to outsource what I do, even if it is a bit expensive.

I also have found that many people are OK to do some jobs for me that I find really really unpleasant. You need to find the right person for the right "unpleasant" though. This is the beauty of capitalism.

And I am now a millionaire. And when I describe what I do, people yawn and don't want to do it. Even if I find it quite darn interesting.

Beware survivorship bias: I strongly believe it is much easier, and way most likely, to become a millionaire if you set your mind to become a millionaire, and not a billionaire. Many more ways and options. No need for a wild unproven new idea.

Re:Survivorship Bias by hellogoodbyeeee on Friday April 21, 2017 @08:57AM (#14165124)
>Even if I find it quite darn interesting.

Did you find it interesting to begin with? Or did you just think the sector would be a good investment and then later, after you were successful, it became interesting?

Re:Survivorship Bias by 989throwaway66 on Friday April 21, 2017 @12:36PM (#14167078)
It was a very good fit with my skills. And I really had wanted to start something for a long time, and did not find anything. Not passionate about the sector at all. Still not.

But after working on this for many many years, improving little things here and there, then a few bigger things, it became more and more interesting, with a sense of pride that comes with competence and achievement, regardless of the sector.

Re:Survivorship Bias by frgtpsswrdlame on Friday April 21, 2017 @09:40AM (#14165471)
How much of your success would you attribute to "luck"? How much to your upbringing?
Re:Survivorship Bias by 989throwaway66 on Friday April 21, 2017 @12:14PM (#14166852)
Quite a bit. Good brain, good upbringing, good education, that's my biggest luck in life.

I got lucky with finding that opportunity that really met my skills. But I actually had been looking for one for a while, so it's half lucky. And nobody gave me money. I forced it then, and ever since, because nothing comes easy.

But I am lucky also because I don't have a very strong competition. But maybe because I am in a niche, so not fully lucky?

Sorry for being not very specific in all this...

Re:Survivorship Bias by kk_cz on Friday April 21, 2017 @08:05AM (#14164737)
...so? what is it that you do?
Re:Survivorship Bias by 989throwaway66 on Friday April 21, 2017 @08:37AM (#14164958)
Not sharing on a very public platform with so many readers, by fear that, even if 99.99% will yawn, someone will decide to try to compete with me... Living small, discreetly, living happy.
Re:Survivorship Bias by Noseshine on Friday April 21, 2017 @09:38AM (#14165445)
That is the trouble with you guys: You propose ideas that work - but only as long as only very few people do it. Thank you for demonstrating it so clearly - by the way, did you yourself even notice this catch?

It may work for anyone, but not for everyone. I love that in English those words sound so similar. I might be tempted to consider that's part of the problem (as part of the larger "how does language influence thought" topic, where the answer currently seems to be "generally not too much, but it depends"), but in my (non-English speaking) country the same kind of thinking isn't exactly unknown either.

Re:Survivorship Bias by 989throwaway66 on Friday April 21, 2017 @12:29PM (#14167012)
You are right: not everyone can do the same thing, some ideas are limited. But usually, those are the Jobs, Gates, Zuck's type of ideas. There are many more ideas beyond those. Especially those that don't scale, because many don't want to do them.

But if you decide to start a plumbing company in the US, and if you have the brains, put the hard work, talent and discipline to run it very very well even just in a local area, I would not be surprised that you can reasonably become a millionaire over time. Because it's always hard to find a good plumber and electrician. But many people yawn at plumbing, and you'll never be a billionaire. And it will take more than 3 years, and it won't be flip and repeat.

Re:Survivorship Bias by Nomentatus on Friday April 21, 2017 @12:37PM (#14167087)
It's a template, lots of businesses fit it pretty well. He isn't inviting competition to his corner of the garden, you'll have to find your own. This won't work for self-indulgent humans, very true - so it won't work for everyone.
Re:Survivorship Bias by Noseshine on Saturday April 22, 2017 @05:43AM (#14171772)
I refer to what I already wrote. Nothing you say addresses my point. It only works for some.

> lots of businesses fit it pretty well.

Keyword: "businesses". If everybody follows that path, who is going to work at those businesses?

You completely failed to grasp my point. You keep looking at a niche and miss the big picture: I only works for a few!

Not to mention what it would mean if everybody could become a millionaire, never even mind how.

Re:Survivorship Bias by Nomentatus on Saturday April 22, 2017 @05:45PM (#14174999)
You are agreeing with me strenuously. Anybody can follow the path, with more success than any of the common approaches to starting a business. No approach will guarantee success for everyone who tries to start a business, needless to say.
Re:Survivorship Bias by mseebach on Friday April 21, 2017 @07:14AM (#14164524)
> Capitalism is a competition. [...] You won because someone lost.

This is false, and frankly a bit insulting.

Re:Survivorship Bias by dbatten on Friday April 21, 2017 @08:07AM (#14164746)
To expand... it's false, because wealth is not a zero sum game. There is WAY more wealth around on earth in 2017 than there was in 1917, 1017, or 117. Most of the wealthiest folks get rich by inventing/creating new wealth, not by stealing from others.

If capitalism was just a competition, we'd still be fighting over castles and wheat and Trojan women. Cars, computers, and indoor plumbing wouldn't exist.

Re:Survivorship Bias by arximboldi on Friday April 21, 2017 @09:02AM (#14165154)
> wealth is not a zero sum game.

Agreed.

> There is WAY more wealth around on earth in 2017 than there was in 1917, 1017, or 117

Agreed. Also inequality is higher than ever.

> Most of the wealthiest folks get rich by inventing/creating new wealth, not by stealing from others.

False. They get rich by extracting surplus out of the new wealth created by someone's labor. Whether we call that stealing or not I don't care.

> If capitalism was just a competition, we'd still be fighting over castles and wheat and Trojan women. Cars, computers, and indoor plumbing wouldn't exist.

As I said, wealth is not a zero sum game.

But for someone to be rich, someone has to be poor. By definition. For someone to extract surplus, someone has to create value--i.e. work. By definition.

Now, you could argue that in a society with a lot of wealth, one can be "poor by definition" or a salaried worker, and still live a life in dignity. I concede that this could be a theoretical possibility. It could make for an interesting science fiction novel.

In most parts of the real world (including the USA), being poor is miserable and doing salaried work is alienating and most often exploitative.

Re:Survivorship Bias by badestrand on Friday April 21, 2017 @09:17AM (#14165266)
Of course wealth is a zero zum game, because being wealthy is defined as having much more than others, disregarding the absolute amount. This is how we humans work, we compare us to our neighbors.

So 1) not everyone can be wealthy and 2) for a single person to become more wealthy someone else gets poorer.

Re:Survivorship Bias by doubleunplussed on Friday April 21, 2017 @10:24AM (#14165848)
You're using a different definition to those who you disagree with.

Clearly relative wealth is a zero sum game. By definition - relative wealth is defined by your difference from the mean, so any change in society's overall wealth is subtracted off.

Absolute wealth is empirically not zero sum. Any disagreement about whether "wealth is zero sum" is either disputing that empirical result, or arguing that the relative wealth definition is more important somehow. So if you're going to argue that you should provide some reasoning.

I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, and that maximising something like median wealth is what's optimal for human flourishing.

Re:Survivorship Bias by tankenmate on Friday April 21, 2017 @08:00AM (#14164711)
But not as false as you seem to imply; in fact it is somewhere in the middle ground. Some things are finite, others not. So for finite things there literally are cases where one person can have and another can not. Obviously there is a spectrum and some things fall into the middle ground. I think that the GP is antagonistic, but one person's envy politics is another person's inequality; your statement seems to be the flip side to the GP's.

So almost all acknowledge that luck can play a factor, how much can sometimes be up for debate. So if you are lucky do you deserve all that comes your way? or should you play nice and share? And if someone else's luck was even partly the cause of your misfortune how would you feel?

I don't have the answers but I think the subject is worth thinking about; especially as it seems difficult to square the circle.

Re:Survivorship Bias by thenomad on Friday April 21, 2017 @06:19AM (#14164308)
The "actual unpleasant work" is to a significant extent the domain of entrepreneurs.

For example, cleaning companies - often started by one person doing the cleaning - are an absolutely textbook example of entrepreneurship.

Some of those entrepreneurs then become millionaires :)

(Updating this post: obviously a lot of unpleasant work is done by non-entrepreneurs. But the maxim of "find something necessary but unpleasant and start a company doing it as a high-success-chance play" is also very true: entrepreneurs don't, as a class, all avoid the nasty stuff.

In the UK, the phrase I'm looking for is "where there's muck, there's brass.")

Re:Survivorship Bias by et-al on Friday April 21, 2017 @11:54AM (#14166655)
Along those lines, the idea of meeting a millionaire who makes bottle caps tickles me more than meeting most well known entrepreneurs like Phil Knight. Something about commonplace, yet invisible products.
Re:Survivorship Bias by danielpatrick on Friday April 21, 2017 @06:44AM (#14164402)
lol. What?