Re:Why Not To Do A Startup
by mattmaroon on Wednesday March 19, 2008 @03:51PM
(#141078)
In poker world there's a famous aphorism that says tournaments are a lottery, but the good players get more tickets. (If you want to be technical, the average player gets 1 ticket, the best players get 5-10, the worst get some tiny fraction approaching 0).
Startups work much the same way. Those who win at anything (startups, lottery, poker) always underestimate the amount of luck involved, so if you ask them, they will of course denigrate its role.
I hate this comparison - building a successful startup may have some element of luck, but like with everything in life, the amount of luck your success is based on is inversely proportional to the amount of understanding you have of your environment.
If you don't know the currents, getting to the other side does seems to take a lot of luck.
The 37signals folks could write a scathing counter-example to your post. Sure, they might be a rare exceptions, but I never understood why people feel there is fate in statistics... it's possible! It doesn't matter what "the most common startup life" is like, because again, the way your life works out isn't decided by pigeonholing you into fated roles, but by your own choosing.