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Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by sjg007 on Friday April 07, 2017 @01:04PM (#14061450)
Yeah, the problem is you still spend an hour in the car away from your family and friends. Are you taking your kid to work, or dropping them off somewhere (school?).. most kids go to their neighborhood school... I mean self driving cars will be great but the work commute will still be like taking the train. For that 1 hour long commute you can't work on your house, do chores, be present at home... A 10 minute walk or short drive is still far better.

However, these commutes should get shorter just because the cars will drive better and maybe at higher speeds.

Most people commuting are those with families who live further out for less cost and/or more house because they have families.

Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by bredren on Friday April 07, 2017 @01:23PM (#14061609)
This commute thing is a big deal. Changing the way it feels to commute and what you can do while in motion will reduce housing pressure in urban places and has the potential to lift up previously rural communities.

His quotes are more like anecdotal illustrations to a bigger point.

Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by dcosson on Friday April 07, 2017 @01:38PM (#14061772)
> will reduce housing pressure in urban places and has the potential to lift up previously rural communities.

I'm skeptical because

1. a large part of the housing pressure in many urban places is artificially created by the past several decades of bad building/zoning policy.

2. the usual type of struggling rural community we think about is often more than an hour from a big city. I doubt even a self-driving car makes a 3-5 hour roundtrip commute appealing. And this doesn't address traffic at all, which is already often the bottleneck of how far out from a city it is feasible to commute from.

I'm generally excited about the prospect of self-driving cars but apprehensive of this idea that it will let us continue/increase our suburban sprawling for free.

Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by goseeastarwar on Friday April 07, 2017 @02:02PM (#14062034)
#1 is right, but if you replace rural with exurban (which I think is more appropriate in this discussion), you're hugely improving the quality of life for millions with autonomous commutes.
Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by bredren on Friday April 07, 2017 @02:27PM (#14062280)
If you can believe work will be increasingly remotely performed and that greater "commutes" will be tolerated, cities will need to go into sell mode and make policy changes.

Many cities have gone through drastic swings in population due to structural changes in the economy. Some, like Oakland, did not handle it well and paid dearly for it.

Long ~3 Hr RT "Self-driving" commutes already exist to some extant: FB, Google, etc, Oakland->MTV buses. People use them and they are required for talent retention.

Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by weaksauce on Friday April 07, 2017 @01:37PM (#14061764)
It will likely be a race to the bottom where it's expected that you work during your commute as well pushing the urban sprawl further and further away from the main cities. This will be exacerbated by the fact that jobs are going to be more and more scarce with the impending automation of most things.
Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by taysic on Friday April 07, 2017 @10:34PM (#14064963)
I have a really hard time believing that jobs will be scarce. There are always new things to build - always new things that people want. People will come up with new products no one ever knew they needed but want - and need to hire people to come up with building something that can't be automated out of the box.

I don't think there will be a problem for white collar workers or technical workers at all. Not sure about blue collar workers - I mean you always hear about how there is a shortage of people who are skilled in construction or whatnot. Will that be automated soon? I would be surprised. If not, perhaps some muscle-requiring jobs might even be more in demand.

Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by mercer on Saturday April 08, 2017 @02:45AM (#14065691)
I agree that we'll probably find ways to keep ourselves busy (while I'm not sure if we should), but I think the worry about automation and job scarcity is still very real even if you just consider the temporary disruption of 'work as we know it'.

Even if newer generations will be prepared for different types of labor, that still leaves lots of people with skills that are obsolete and the inability to adjust. And I think this problem is much bigger for lower-schooled work, which is exactly the kind of stuff that'll be automated first.

I'm a well-educated programmer and many of my skills are general and abstract enough to adjust to a changing world with relatively little effort. But I suspect a truck driver without a degree will have significantly more trouble adjusting to a world where his job is automated away.

While white-collar jobs fall somewhere in between, even there I've seen the negative effects of automation and changing requirements, and I think this is only now starting to become a real problem. I've met quite a number of people (even in the < 30 crowd) who are shockingly bad with computers, for example, and the only reasons I can think of that they get away with it is that 1) their 40+ manager/boss is is equally 'illiterate' so the whole company is 'old-fashioned' or 2) they cannot be easily fired (which I approve of, personally).

The way I see it, many of these people are one crafty, ambitious, young tech-savvy employee, consultant, or competitor away from being obsoleted. There's just a lag between what is possible and what companies actually do.

Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by icantdrive55 on Saturday April 08, 2017 @05:46AM (#14066188)
"I'm a well-educated programmer and many of my skills are general and abstract enough to adjust to a changing world with relatively little effort."

1. A lot of us think we will be needed, or we will be able desirable to someone, or company.

2. I don't know your backround, but unless your education is in a field where there's a big barrier to entry (medicine always comes to mind); I think even the Ivy Leaguers will feel the rath of automation.

3. Willie Brown is actively wondering what San Franciso is going to do when this current tech boom ends. He doesn't want to add to the huge homeless problem that visible everywhere in that city.

4. I read somewhere that workforce participation is at historic lows, or a 30 year low. I don't know? It's the number of people who can work, but just gave up number. I've looked at the unemployment numbers, and they just don't feel right. I almost feel like they are lying? I know so many able bodied people who are barely getting by. They have multiple jobs because they are young, and have energy. Companies like Uber has no problem finding people who will go into debt in order to "get their side hussle on". It's all so easier when your on your 20-30's. You have a network of friends on for support/networking. I know too many forty year olds that are living off their savings. It's so much harder when you get older.

5. I really fear what will happen to the "well educated" white collar worker finds out their skills are just not needed, or they hit 45 on the tech sector? I honestly don't know what "well educated" is anymore. It makes a much sence as a "Professional Manager"? I can't imagine companies in the future will really care what university you went to. After all, they went to college too. They know what it's all about.

6. My point is we should all be a little concerned. I know well educated guys whom hit 45-50, and just arn't needed anymore. Some try to go into blue collar jobs, but they don't seem to last. (Try to stay somewhat fit. Blue collar work is usually physically demanding. Even working at Cost-co, or Wholefoods is standing on your feet all day long, and construction blue collar jobs--are a bitch on the body.) I have noticed White Collar workers usually come from supportive families, so they don't become homeless. But--many do.

7. I really don't want to debate anyone. I just don't see the availability of jobs like I did in the 90's, and that was during a ression. I do see a lot of cushy tech jobs that I doubt will be there in ten years. Why do I feel like we will soon be talking about the free food Google used to offer its employees? "Remember the good ole days?"

Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by 0xC0DECAFE2020 on Sunday April 09, 2017 @08:53AM (#14072030)
I commend you for pointing out what they don't, or can't, see. I have all but given up countering the "I'm invincible" crowd. However, I'm very empathetic to the view point, I myself held it at one time - at one time.
Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by mercer on Sunday April 09, 2017 @10:03AM (#14072325)
To be clear: I definitely worry about my future at times, and I don't think I'm invincible. I intended to make a comparison with (especially) blue-collar work.

Because I do strongly believe that society favors the higher-educated, or at least those who are good at abstract thought, and I think it's very unlikely that this will change in the near future. And if it does, we're probably all pretty fucked.

That said, I'm not disagreeing with you (both). Just wanted to clarify my position.

Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by TarpitCarnivore on Friday April 07, 2017 @01:36PM (#14061748)
But why not encourage people to build offices closer to these rural places or places in need up an uptick (Cleveland, Detroit, etc)?

Why is the solution always to commute into cities?

Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by goseeastarwar on Friday April 07, 2017 @02:00PM (#14062005)
Density allows communities to be more efficient.
Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by TarpitCarnivore on Friday April 07, 2017 @03:24PM (#14062778)
And there's a lot of room in some of these mid-west cities and rural areas. It allows for cheaper COL and better space to build. The density will come if the business is there to support it.
Re:Marc Andreessen: “Take the Ego Out of Ideas” by erikpukinskis on Saturday April 08, 2017 @02:10PM (#14068150)
VR with eye contact will end commuting as a standard for information jobs. Eye contact is the main reason why teleconferencing doesn't work.