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A comment on Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI. Parent comment

Re:Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI by argonaut on Saturday April 01, 2017 @04:59AM (#14011272)
You admit that you don't know what the actual probabilities are. Or you admit you have an extremely low confidence in your estimate of the probabilities.
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Re:Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI by nbouscal on Saturday April 01, 2017 @10:23AM (#14012236)
Have you read any of the estimates? Basically every expert gives a huge confidence interval, as do most of the people actively working on AI risk.
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Re:Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI by argonaut on Sunday April 02, 2017 @08:37AM (#14016931)
Saying you are 95% confident AGI will come between 50-100 years (a "huge" confidence interval), is still far too confident.
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Re:Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI by nbouscal on Sunday April 02, 2017 @03:54PM (#14018708)
I don't recall seeing 95% confidence intervals that narrow. Even the 90% confidence intervals I see are usually like 5-150 or something. (Also it would be super weird to me if the lower bound of someone's 95%CI was 50.)
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