Re:Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
by argonaut on Sunday April 02, 2017 @08:37AM
(#14016931)
Saying you are 95% confident AGI will come between 50-100 years (a "huge" confidence interval), is still far too confident.
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Re:Open Philanthropy Project awards a grant of $30M to OpenAI
by nbouscal on Sunday April 02, 2017 @03:54PM
(#14018708)
I don't recall seeing 95% confidence intervals that narrow. Even the 90% confidence intervals I see are usually like 5-150 or something. (Also it would be super weird to me if the lower bound of someone's 95%CI was 50.)