It's more about people publicly putting their name against me, which I would post on my website, saying to the world that they actually think self driving cars are going to happen. I would like people actually in the tech industry to bet against me, not people looking to make money. It's more a reality check about who is willing to put their money where their mouth is, because I think there are few.

I think a fair wager would be, "On March 26th 2022 at 2am, 830am, 5pm, and 11pm, a self driving call will legally take seibelj from [his address] in Boston to [address] in Cambridge. The car will require no human intervention and it will arrive at the destination regardless of time, weather, traffic, and construction."

Ha, I'd still say it's possible for people to believe (say, >75% probability) that self-driving cars will come in the next five years AND have a good reason not to take you up on the bet. Namely, in the event they lose the bet they NOT ONLY (a) don't get to enjoy self-driving cars, (b) don't see a return on whatever time/financial investment they made into the technology and (c) lose $1000 to you, but they also (d) are publicly embarrassed on your website.