But this is an important point: residential solar will always be fairly expensive due to labor costs. As module and other hardware costs reduce, it'll make sense to use the very highest efficiency cells, tracking systems (provided they're simple to install), etc.
But I think utility and commercial scale solar will dominate. Someone will eventually get really good at installing solar farms a gigawatt at a time with a highly automated system. Think of the harvesting and planting machines we use in agriculture. Or the machines used to lay railroads automatically. When this happens, utility solar at the interconnection point will drop well below 1 cent per kWh in sunny locations, and transport costs will dominate. Which has some interesting implications.
Cost and efficiency also hugely impacts developing nation solar (most of rural Africa) where no grid whatsoever currently exists.
It always works out to a bullshit calculation that "the system pays for itself in 10 years" [if you ignore inflation, opportunity cost, and accept their electricity rate projections and assume the gov't won't cut green electricity subsidies]. That number never seems to change, it's always 10 years.
I'd love to get panels put on my house and shop, I have a lot of square footage. But it seems like there's some very greedy middlemen between me and the panels and I lack the skill to install myself.