It's counterfeit branding but it's not counterfeit production. It's worth distinguishing the two, at least in terms of consumer harm.

I would disagree. It is counterfeit production. The entire notion of factory overruns being of the "same quality" as the original brand is very dubious to me. When the ODM ordered X instances of a part, the factory delivered X instances to them. There's no reason for them to create X instances for the order and an additional Y instances for themselves. Factory overruns, therefore, are instances that the original brand rejected because they were out of spec in some way. Now, that might be fine - the rejection might have been due to a quality issue, such as the silkscreened logo not being in the correct spot. Or, it might not be fine - the rejection might have been due to the chip not living up to its specified clock speed or memory capacity. The problem is, as a consumer, I have no way of knowing whether the "factory overrun" I'm buying is of the first sort or the second sort. That's why I'd consider it counterfeiting.