His disapproval rating has eclipsed 50% in record time for a modern president - 8 days. 42 vs 51, approve/disapprove https://www.rt.com/usa/375715-trump-majority-disapproval-8-d...
President Obama had an approval rating twice as large following his inauguration. 84/14
Over 3 million people marched against him just two weeks ago and continue to mobilize.
I can't find any evidence that there is some silent majority supporting him. I'm more inclined to think it's a vocal minority.
Maybe if it mattered he would have campaigned differently. You can't judge on a metric that isn't the target.
> His disapproval rating
opinion polls?
> I can't find any evidence that there is some silent majority supporting him
He won the election...
And Trump actually got amazing positive opinion polling 6 months ago. Now that it's not in his favor, though, ignore?
And you can absolutely win an election with both minority vote share and a lack of popularity.
I've never payed attention to them. They seem to be used more for the political purpose of manipulation, than for producing an innocent, yet unnecessary, prediction of results
> And you can absolutely win an election with both minority vote share and a lack of popularity.
No, you still need a certain amount of voter popularity, with the right distribution; unless you are talking about something else.
He didn't even get more votes.
I think this whole pro-data story is incorrect. Trump's huge unpopularity right now shows that what happened this election was Clinton messing up her own campaign by religiously following data and not doing basic things like visit Wisconsin. And from the journalism end, the NYT telling readers that Clinton had an 80+% chance of winning, sending a loud and clear message: Stay home if you wish to protest vote.
Even after massive, massive predictive failures, fortune-tellers always manage to give excuses and stick around.