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Re:There Probably Have Been Aliens by marcosdumay on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:10PM (#13464319)
Another take at it is that life here very likely started with RNA chains. That number sounds very low, but 10^-22 < 4^37. That is, if only one chromosome among all of the ones 37 basis long could self reproduce, it would already fit the probabilities cited on the article.

Now, 36 basis is extremely short. I don't think anybody believes there's anything that size that able to reproduce. Last time I checked, the smallest known self-reproducing chromosome had around 160 basis. That is, it had a probability of ~10^-96 of appearing between all 160 basis chromosomes. (And remember, there are ~10^80 atoms on the observable Universe...)

Re:There Probably Have Been Aliens by Retric on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:14PM (#13464369)
At a minimum there are several right vs left handed molecules which doubles the ways you can get our current ecosystem.

So, really the question is how many possible ways can you get self replication not how complex is the first example.

Re:There Probably Have Been Aliens by marcosdumay on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:26PM (#13464485)
Still, the only think we know is that the odds are bigger than 10^-96.

You will need a huge amount of self-replicating chromosomes between 180 and 160 basis to make up for the increased size - it's known that self replication is not common, but I don't think we know that to a 10^-22 certainty either, so all that can still be wrong.

Anyway, there isn't a lot to argue about self-replicating on that context. It means that this chromosome is able to create copies of itself in a RNA-rich ocean. It can require light for that, or a big thermal gradient, but not both. The exact conditions of the ocean are, AFAIK, unknown, but things like your example do not fit.

Re:There Probably Have Been Aliens by Retric on Monday January 23, 2017 @03:37PM (#13465758)
I don't think we can define a lower bound as we don't know the size of the universe, or if there is a cycle of previous universes without life.

However, life showed up on earth at a very early stage which suggest it has a relatively high probability over a planets lifespan. Without other information to go on earth is probably topical and life generally shows up within the first 500 million years watter shows up.

Re:There Probably Have Been Aliens by marcosdumay on Monday January 23, 2017 @04:50PM (#13466402)
I'm not following the reasoning about a lower bound. I didn't use the size of the universe anywhere.

> However, life showed up on earth at a very early stage which suggest it has a relatively high probability over a planets lifespan.

1 - That's a good explanation. As good as any other.

2 - Alternatively, life's appearance depends on something that only existed in that short timespan (both light and a big temperature gradient at the same place is a great candidate).

3 - Or life requires some time to evolve so intelligence can only appear on planets that life was early.

4 - Or, you can mix #2 and #3 at varying amounts.

Re:There Probably Have Been Aliens by pvg on Monday January 23, 2017 @01:51PM (#13464765)
Do you mean base pairs? Bases?
Re:There Probably Have Been Aliens by marcosdumay on Monday January 23, 2017 @04:52PM (#13466424)
Sorry, I mean bases.

Nucleic acid replication involve them being both dual and single base sequences on different stages. So the difference between "bases" and "base pairs" is meaningless.