You have hit the nail on the head here. The 2/3 liability transition is a big one. My guess is that companies will actually delay deploying level 3 systems until they are nearly perfect. This will result in systems that seem really really good at driving (especially in sunny southern california), yet still insist that the driver wiggle the wheel or show some other sign of attentiveness to prevent liability transfer.
They won't delay deploying the systems. They'll delay calling them Level 3 or the consumer-speak equivalent. Though absent really obtrusive monitoring (like checking for eyes being on the road), are people who text while driving today really going to stop doing so when "assistive driving" systems can safely get down the highway almost always?
That said, I agree that the liability transfer is a big issue. Although, at some point, expect to see some case that breaks through "It's assistive driving only. Nudge-nudge. Wink-wink."
My guess is soon after the first company releases this they will show statistics on how much safer their cars are and governments stop sales on new cars that are not level 3 in whatever situations their car handles. (this to repeat again as we move up the levels)
Even if you are right because of the above all manufactures would be stupid to not have a significant investment: the day when they have no choice might be out of their control and if they are not ready they go out of business (or confine their business to poor countries with loser laws - but these countries tend not to sell many high profit new cars).
I can't wait for the Show HN hacks to get around these requirements.
That was already done 2 years ago. Some idiot just tied a bottle to the steering wheel of his Mercedes to trick it into sensing that he was still driving.
Volvo's is starting a 100 vehicle test in one city in Sweden. Automation is only available on some major roads. The driver is not required to pay attention in automatic mode. There's a progress bar - minutes until the end of automatic driving. There are previously located points at the end of automatic driving regions where the vehicle can pull over and stop, should the driver not take over when requested. So that's what entry level full autonomy looks like. That's a good level 3. Those go on the road any day now; the vehicles have been built and tested, and the first of the 100 drivers, who are car purchasers, not Volvo employees, have already been chosen.[1]
And yes, they work in snow. The test is in Gothenburg, Sweden; they have to work in snow.
[1] http://www.volvocars.com/intl/about/our-innovation-brands/in...