Yes, but that is $25B out of total receipts of $884B[0]. For every $1.00 paid in over $.97 was paid back out to beneficiaries. In 2015 it was $.975 and 2016 will probably be higher still.
According to this page[1] the trust fund will be depleted by 2035. I know that is a projection and things can change, but to say there is no room for concern borders on hubris.
[0] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4a3.html [1] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/
Which, as you can see from comments upthread, is -- even though I personally don't think it's true -- one of the arguments that people regularly make in favor of SS when they feel it's under threat ("it's your money", "you paid into it and you should get your money out", etc.). Positioning it in this way makes voters feel like they have a personal investment in the system that they need to protect, which is clever because people generally hate having something taken away, much more than they dislike not receiving something (even if the amounts are the same).
When it becomes a straightforward tax, then it'll be attacked like every other tax during the periodic political pendulum-swings in favor of lower taxes and fewer government programs in general. And by removing the contribution cap, it'll suddenly have a lot of very wealthy enemies who have a significant vested interest in making sure it goes away. I would not expect it to last long under those conditions.
So bloody what? I've got no problem taking from the rich to fund a basic income to keep the elderly off cat-food. I've got parents and a grandmother left who need Social Security.
>When it becomes a straightforward tax, then it'll be attacked like every other tax during the periodic political pendulum-swings in favor of lower taxes and fewer government programs in general.
It already is attacked during regular political pendulum swings. Both Clinton and Bush 2 tried to privatize Social Security.
That shows a grave misunderstanding of both proposed solutions to the SA insolvency problem.
It would have been called mandatory social savings if that was its intended purpose. It's not. It never was. It's social security.
>one of the arguments that people regularly make in favor of SS when they feel it's under threat: "it's your money"
This is actually one of the arguments used to try and justify privatizing it and handing over the money to Wall Street to invest instead (Bush tried to do exactly this and Obama made noises about it).
>And by removing the contribution cap, it'll suddenly have a lot of very wealthy enemies
It ALREADY has a lot of very wealthy enemies who are trying to privatize it. One of the most prominent is Stan Druckenmiller, who is fairly open about inciting intergenerational warfare - telling "millenials" that "boomers" are the cause of their problems and that the "fix" is privatizing social security and austerity:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/who-should-young-peop...
You're describing a distinction without a difference, as other parts of the USG have already spent the surplus.
The US government will be in debt for the rest of its existence and the balance of that debt will likely increase every year. The Federal Reserve openly targets a 3% inflation rate and that inflation is going to come from ye olde printing press.
IMHO, better this inflation come in the form of SS payments than payouts to military contractors.
I'm coming from the perspective that there is neither a short term nor long term plan to address the inevitable default of the US government, decades hence. We WILL either default, monetize, or sell federal land. Math won't stop working in my lifetime.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/05/the-7-biggest-myths-a...
Social security's 2030 "insolvency" was a political decision not an economic inevitability.
