No they wouldn't, and you are one of the people here who I would say should very well know it. :p
The DNC screwed up, but the overwhelming majority of everybody else screws up to this level or worse on the regular.
My quip was meant to emphasize that the security breaches described are basic, and likely could've been blocked if the DNC had, at the time, been following good security practice. Many corporations withstand such attacks routinely (and as you note, many don't).
The penetration of the DNC was not something that required professional-level skill, let alone the resources of a nation-state.
[0] http://www.securityweek.com/amex-developers-leave-debug-tool...
If all the docs are boring, isn't that all the more reason to think that a nation state had nothing to do with this?
The NSA would've intercepted your new router in the mail with a backdoor and could've used a TEMPEST van to read your screens from miles away. I have to believe those mighty Russian hackers have figured out comparable tricks by now and aren't reliant on people falling for idiotic phishing scams to get their information.
I mean, they have Snowden, who showed us the NSA's TAO programs... right?
They have the motive to do it, as much or more than anyone else and certainly the capacity. They are tied to a disinformation campaigns [1] that seem to have the goal of sowing suspicion between allies who oppose them and have everything to gain by swaying our political process.
That isn't enough evidence of course, but I'm surprised by the suspicion here and I can only chock it up to the increase in cynicism that is partly a result of these very actions. Because the Bush administration managed to finagle the intelligence enough to justify the war in Iraq we can just ignore our intelligence agencies whenever we want, right?
Internal bullshit like what was going on at the DNC is annoying, frustrating and unfortunate but people are falling for the trap hook line and sinker. This happens everywhere, you can damn be sure it was going on at the RNC as well but republicans wouldn't have abandoned their party (at this point its pretty clear nothing can make a fair number of them abandon their party) but independents and some liberals are doing exactly what the hackers want (whoever they turn out to be, likely the Russians): we are getting cynical and despondent. Rather than getting involved and saying we should clean house, its like "well if you didn't suck so much you wouldn't have lost." while doing nothing to make things suck less.
[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/29/world/europe/russia-sweden...
This document says the attack would've failed if the DNC had watched out for SQL injection and if DNC staffers had not fallen for a phishing scheme. We're supposed to believe only a nation-state could've conducted these attacks? This is "Baby's First Hack" level stuff.
This only further proves the government's propaganda policy for dealing with prominent cybersecurity breaches: blame it all on a foreign boogieman, as they did in the case of the Sony leak, so that the public doesn't catch on to just how very vulnerable all their electronic data is to practically anyone with the inclination to attempt to steal it.