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Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by clock_tower on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @10:28PM (#13234518)
Are you familiar with potlatch society in the old Pacific Northwest? With wealth readily available, the "big men" of a tribe (roughly chiefs, but not hereditary) competed to see how much they could give away to their neighbors and rivals; all you had to do to eat well, or make it through a bad winter, was to admit that your neighbors were led by a great and glorious chief.

This system didn't work very well at the time (it bred slavery and warlordism, and produced a lot of waste, especially towards the end, when trade goods were abundant and population was running out); but it'll become increasingly more doable as capital becomes more productive. Magnanimity is a human instinct, and people already compete on status and prestige; just persuade holders of capital that supporting the unemployed/unemployable is a good thing, make sure they get personal feel-good-ness out of it, and persuade the unemployed/unemployable not to run up the red flag, and you've probably got a stable system.

Probably. I don't think we need to worry about slavery much, but warlordism could become a serious issue. Where potlatch-like culture exists, aggressive bids for the throne (or equivalent) tend to follow; the Earl of Warwick in the War of the Roses comes to mind. Still, even warlordism has potential to be less bad than Communism (more room for ambition, better management of capital) or Fascism (you can be a minority and not die) -- the Wars of the Roses had roughly zero impact on the common people of England. (See A Farewell to Alms for a detailed discussion of how England's wars, starting from a pretty early date, avoided messing up England's people.)

This is all hypothetical, though; I'm not saying that a potlatch orientation is the only possible solution, nor even that it's necessarily a working solution at all...

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by inimino on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @10:49PM (#13234637)
What is the advantage of this over universal basic income funded by taxes?
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by wojcech on Thursday December 22, 2016 @12:09AM (#13234997)
People think taxes are evil but for dome reason will accept warlords?
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by krakensden on Thursday December 22, 2016 @01:47AM (#13235394)
The thing about warlords is you get to skip the 'acceptance' bit.
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by Spooky23 on Thursday December 22, 2016 @07:44AM (#13236886)
A gun in your face shortcuts a lot of inconvenient thinking.
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by Nomentatus on Friday December 23, 2016 @01:13PM (#13246255)
See Bush, George II and Nixon, Richard.
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by Nomentatus on Friday December 23, 2016 @01:13PM (#13246247)
"What is the advantage of this over universal basic income funded by taxes?":

If you like getting giftcards at Xmas, nothing. But gifts from Santa or a potlatch are more fun, and more intimate. Choosing gifts forces us to think about each others' needs and desires, which is extremely pro-social.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by ianai on Wednesday December 21, 2016 @11:45PM (#13234890)
Cutting a check sounds a lot less problematic than warlordism/etc
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by wyager on Thursday December 22, 2016 @01:10AM (#13235267)
Why are gifts preferable to taxes? This seems fairly self-evident to me; gifts aren't given at (metaphorical) gunpoint.
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by Filligree on Thursday December 22, 2016 @07:24AM (#13236758)
How do you think the warlords—warlords—get those 'gifts' in the first place?

Taxes are at least predictable.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by visarga on Thursday December 22, 2016 @01:08AM (#13235254)
Everyone could have his own small farm, fab and robots. No need to rely on "big men" competing for karma points from the peasants.
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by padobson on Thursday December 22, 2016 @07:35AM (#13236828)
Everything old is new again.

It's going to be some damn thing when everyone in the South takes your idea and they build up their civilization around free robotic labor, and then when we hit AI sentience and start ensuring the civil rights of robots the entire South has to be burned to the ground again to free the sentient robots from their owners.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by mcv on Thursday December 22, 2016 @08:24AM (#13237077)
You don't have to make machines sentient, you know. Some people seem to think the goal of AI and robotics should be to make more humans, but we already have plenty of humans. We should make machines that do our work more efficiently so we don't have to do it anymore.

We can still do the fun stuff of course, like writing and art, and get famous and all that.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by Eridrus on Thursday December 22, 2016 @08:39AM (#13237161)
It used to be a stupid question to me since how could rules have consciousness.

But most modern AI is learnt from data, not programmed, how will we know if our AI in conscious?

We're not there yet and may never be, but since we do not know what consciousness is or what leads to it, we may stumble into it...

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by padobson on Thursday December 22, 2016 @08:29AM (#13237112)
I agree, I'm just not sure we'll be able to convince everyone with the capability of making sentient robots that they shouldn't make sentient robots before they make sentient robots.

Human labor has solved a lot of problems. The obvious shortcut to solving lots of problems is mimicking human labor. Given the opportunity to take a shortcut to solve a problem (especially at a profit) some manager in some business will do it.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by erikpukinskis on Thursday December 22, 2016 @10:15AM (#13237733)
Zero people have the capability to make sentient robots at the moment.

And zero people can even describe how a sentient robot could be constructed, even with theoretical future hardware. "We'll have as many flops as some models say a brain has, and programmers are creative" is about as far as anyone can get, but I don't think that qualifies as a plan.

So, it's a fun thing to think about, but like all sci-fi it probably isn't the best basis for societal planning.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by dwaltrip on Thursday December 22, 2016 @02:35PM (#13239687)
The question is whether a silicon brain can acquire the capabilities of a human brain without picking up sentience along the way.

In order to perform at or above human level (in a general fashion), the robot will need a firm, comprehensive understanding of the world. Won't this unavoidably involve an understanding of the self as well?

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by pdog on Friday December 23, 2016 @10:15PM (#13248389)
What self is there to understand? Does a computer chip know what it's processing?
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by dwaltrip on Sunday December 25, 2016 @10:05PM (#13256704)
The awareness of all sensory or data input, internal processes, as well as the system's dynamic conceptual models and their change over time. This includes an awareness of the system's conceptual model of itself.

I don't think any chips today have awareness. But it seems to me that you couldn't have general, adaptable intelligence without it.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by jononor on Thursday December 22, 2016 @02:03AM (#13235456)
But the land is all owned already, and not by the people who's jobs are being replaced? And so far automation in farming is focused on large-scale operation, with much less good solutions for family -scale.
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by visarga on Thursday December 22, 2016 @02:08AM (#13235471)
Economies of scale have been the bread and butter of progress in the last 100 years, but we're entering the age of customization now. Adaptive technologies can work on small scale as well as on large scale. And large scale can still be achieved by coops that provide services for many people at once. People do have capital and resources, it's just spread and divided. What we need is to organize.

I give self-replicating factories a higher probability than AGI. We'll probably have a 100% automated stack that can replicate and repair itself, as well as produce everything we need, all based on locally sourced and plentiful materials, before we have human level AI. It will be a manufacturing singularity. We should bootstrap automation in itself, like we bootstrap compilers. Object production would become similar to compilation, from source code to material object. We'd have optimized material compilers.

When we have a replicator, anyone can have one. Industry would become like agriculture, if you have the initial seeds, you can plant and then you bootstrap your crop.

If you think about self replication, on the whole, industry is a self replicator right now. But we need to make it fully automated, reduce its minimal footprint and make it less reliant on rare materials. There is a need for sustainable, smart materials and open source automation and AI in order to save the population from disenfranchisement. Capital and the means of production should belong to all of us, not just the 1%.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by smallnamespace on Thursday December 22, 2016 @02:25AM (#13235543)
Even if everyone has their own replicator, the competition shifts to who controls raw materials, and who controls energy.

Fresh water, for example, is a scarce (and becoming scarcer) resource, and it's impossible to farm or live without it.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by klodolph on Thursday December 22, 2016 @04:19AM (#13236017)
Yes, although I'm not convinced that fresh water is going to be such a scarce resource in the future. There are a few "outs" on the horizon—besides changing our diet, the possibilities for desalinization, or things like lab-grown meats, may change our relationship with water. Just as long as population growth slows enough…

Agree with the comment about ownership. As technology has improved, more and more power has been going to whoever owns the capital.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by smallnamespace on Thursday December 22, 2016 @05:06PM (#13240793)
Fresh water is not a problem given unlimited energy since desalination works well.

The problem is that energy is expensive, and fresh water shortages will be worst in countries that are poor and can't afford these plants.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by visarga on Thursday December 22, 2016 @03:49AM (#13235900)
I agree. That's why capitalists owning automation should pay UBI - because they get to use raw materials.
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by flowersoldier on Thursday December 22, 2016 @05:41PM (#13241048)
Whisky is for Drinking. Water is for Fighting. -Mark Twain
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by Nomentatus on Friday December 23, 2016 @01:09PM (#13246219)
I like the comment, and you could add in the Roman "client" system which had real similarities. Rich citizens also acquired more status by donating public buildings or sponsoring games and festivals. More than one society has gone this route, with success.

But just a couple corrections re potlatch society: slavery happened in the Pacific Northwest with and without potlatch; potlatch didn't cause slavery. The fishing grounds in this region were the richest in the world at the time (they collapsed almost a century ago under white rule), if you conquered a neighbor (and that was frequent) you could afford to keep 'em and feed 'em, at least for a long time until your population expanded. So slavery was practical in a way it isn't for nomads, say. Excess production was the norm. Unemployment was dealt with largely by exalting art, and devoting an immense amount of the GNP to that, with spectacular results over time. So most excess labor and production was actually devoted to art, not giveaways. I suspect that's the real lesson, although I'm a No Man's Sky devotee - it's a damn wonderful art generator, if you like landscapes, as I do. Maybe humans can't compete there, anymore, either! Warlordism in an age of drones will do little for unemployment; but it's also easier, particularly for democracies, if only your machines get bent up in a successful war of aggression. So it may happen more, but will not be a safety valve for unemployment.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by GauntletWizard on Friday December 23, 2016 @04:30PM (#13247319)
I've been promoting this as the real solution to unemployment - An explosion of incredibly custom and niche art of various forms. We're already seeing the early signs of this with the explosion of indie games and youtube personalities. Not simply personalities like PewDiePie and Markiplier, who are big enough that they're more and more traditional media, even if they came from simpler roots - But the shows that have a few thousand or even hundred viewers. It's not profitable yet, but it's getting there. Patreon is a very key component of this - A few bucks here and there, and the creative class can earn a living - Or simply supplement a part-time job.
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by braveo on Friday December 23, 2016 @10:35PM (#13248427)
> We're already seeing the early signs of this with the explosion of indie games and youtube personalities.

That's a non-sequitur, you may as well say we're seeing this with the explosiong of freelancers and personal businesses.

Because that's really what those youtube personalities are, but that doesn't really address the issue of the older folks who have lost their jobs.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by Nomentatus on Saturday December 24, 2016 @10:05AM (#13250026)
Because we're talking about patronage systems here, profit isn't strictly necessary - you just have to be able to attract patrons; and patrons have to be especially valued by society (gain status) for sponsoring artists with even small followings. (Although government patronage might have to be part of the transition to such a scheme.) Then more older folk artists could be included, but I think this will do more to address future unemployment than present unemployment. I'd settle for that, it seems an ambitious at that.
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by Can_Not on Saturday December 24, 2016 @03:25PM (#13251484)
> Still, even warlordism has potential to be less bad than Communism (more room for ambition, better management of capital) or Fascism (you can be a minority and not die)

Warlordism sounds much worse than communism and fascism. Any culture that is sufficiently advanced to not be chaos and wars for the lords under walordism, would be much better without the warlords. Advanced societies with abundant resources and abundant capital do not need gatekeeping hoarders playing charity Olympics.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by ab5tract on Thursday December 22, 2016 @03:58AM (#13235926)
Interesting that your example of warlordism in a "potlach-like" culture is from a feudal society.

The rest you've said is a gross misrepresentation of the giveaway culture shared amongst many more tribes than just the Northwest ones. And of course, white academia will just refuse and say "our written documentation written by genocidal outsiders is way more accurate than what the cultures themselves say about themselves through their own oral traditions".

This must be an interesting book that somehow argues that wars that killed huge numbers of civilians somehow had zero impact. Looking at the criticism of the book it seems to also argue that there were no negative effects of colonialism.

Funny, I wonder if the millions of people killed in North America between 1500 and 1900 would agree with that.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by coldtea on Thursday December 22, 2016 @04:26AM (#13236042)
It obviously means no negative effects for the colonizers.

Which, come to think of it, it's true.

Except some guilt maybe.

Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by ab5tract on Friday December 23, 2016 @06:46AM (#13244288)
What an excellent disregard of externalities.
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by GFK_of_xmaspast on Thursday December 22, 2016 @09:44AM (#13237504)
Why stop keeping track at 1900?
Re:The Long-Term Jobs Killer Is Not China, It’s Automation by ab5tract on Friday December 23, 2016 @05:17AM (#13244021)
Because since 1900 the genocide shifted from bodies to minds. IE, the millions of deaths occurred prior.