Re:Neurogenesis Deep Learning
by gallerdude on Tuesday December 13, 2016 @06:40PM
(#13172394)
I'll say... 5 - 7 years. This is all based on pure speculation, and being a little more than a ML hobbiest. One thing is for sure though - when we do reach that point, everything changes forever.
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I'm immensely confused as to how such a number can be put on a discovery.
Then again.. I also don't understand how researchers come up with a yearly budget for making discoveries.
Re:Neurogenesis Deep Learning
by gallerdude on Monday December 19, 2016 @08:29PM
(#13216580)
My number is based on raw-nothingness and just pure speculation on my part. I'm by no means an expert in any regard.
I would have said 30 years, and I thought I was the optimist :) Anyway I hope you're right and I'm wrong!
That's not a thing to hope for. We haven't solved the value alignment problem, so the longer until we have human or better-than-human AI, the better.
Re:Neurogenesis Deep Learning
by gallerdude on Tuesday December 13, 2016 @06:54PM
(#13172514)
Theory - does empathy rise with intelligence?
There's no reason to think it does, and plenty of reason to think it shouldn't. We have a fairly good reason of why humans have empathy; it has to do with our evolution as a social species.
On the other hand, the longer it takes to find general AI, the more powerful hardware will be when it is found.
Compared to researchers in the field, even your prediction is very optimistic.
Can you provide references ? I'd like to know what researchers think about it.
Re:Neurogenesis Deep Learning
by chriswarbo on Wednesday December 14, 2016 @05:52AM
(#13175097)
There are a few sources at https://intelligence.org/all-publications/
Click on "FC Forecasting" near the top to limit the list to those about AI predictions, including:
- The Errors, Insights and Lessons of Famous AI Predictions - and What They Mean for the Future
- Predicting AGI: What Can We Say When We Know So Little?
- How We're Predicting AI - or Failing To