Not sure that's accurate. The US refines more oil than any other nation.
http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/features/featurethe-1...
And is #4 in steel production
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_steel_pro...
Oh - and btw: the US likely not only refines most oil, it also consumes it: the US have grown to a country based on consumption, spending and borrowing, but not on producing anything. So if goods only come in and money only goes out, there comes a time where the money is gone. And that is when the trouble starts...
That's just not accurate. The US produces and exports a wide variety of petroleum based products and lots of oil as well. We import a lot of heavier oil, because we have the capacity to refine it (unlike most nations) and export a lot of the easier to refine stuff.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/06/investing/us-oil-exports-inc...
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=25532
And, the US industrial output is at its highest point ever.
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(industrial+production...
Here the story is that our product has peaked around 2000, and has been doing down ever since.
At the end of the day the perception that economic output is dropping (slope) is valid if you consider it on a per capita basis. Now I'd you consider that the jobs and profits aren'disturbed equally, you can see why Trump won.
Eh, not really. Services and other tertiary industries are just as much "production" as a factory or a mine is. The US government, and US citizens, are not much more indebted than average. You don't "run out of money" by buying foreign goods.
US #3 oil producer in the world close to Russia and Saudi Arabia
Edit: quick results from 2015: 25% is imported. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=32&t=6
https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2014/10/28/why-is-the-u-s-...
Per capita, the US manufactures far more goods then it did 40 years ago. It's second only to China.
What that manufacturing does not do is create jobs. Most of it is automated. This is what most people who voted for Trump's economic promises have failed to realize.
US manufacturing still makes plenty of stuff: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturing-dead-outpu...
Sure it does, though sometimes in ways that most people don't recognize as doing that, because it doesn't look like 19th century factory production. E.g., Silicon Valley indirectly processes a variety of less-processed materials (e.g., the direct inputs the electricity generation process, among others) into valuable software (and software-enabled) products and services.
This ignores the reciprocal actions of our trade partners. You can bet that if we raise tariffs on goods from other countries, those countries are going to do likewise to our goods (populism is all the rage everywhere these days). Along with the strong dollar, US goods will be doubly uncompetitive. Export sectors of the US economy will crash.
Also as with traditional armed conflict, it's rather often the case that neither side achieves a clear and unequivocal realization of its aims and that both claim a vindication unsupported by the concrete outcomes, with serious questions as to whether either achieved anything worth the cost suffered.
Yes - all else being equal ...
However, consider that if Europe goes over the brink and China has a serious property (or other) bust the flight to safety could push US interest rates even lower than they have been.
http://www.aei.org/publication/charts-of-the-day-world-manuf...
That chart (and subsequent text) quite clearly says "current US dollars," which is presumably 2012 dollars given the date of publication. So yes, it is inflation adjusted.
Shows flattening of growth from 2012 to 2016. This chart shows "real" output.
I could be misiterpreting but is it that that "current" dollars adjusts for currency inflation, while "real" dollars adjusts for price-of-goods inflation. Or are they basically the same type of adjustment?
https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/11...
People keep assuming because Trump said he'd spend on infrastructure that it will happen. Congress is the only entity that can authorize spending, and those in Congress with the power said it is very low on their priority list.
Sure, maybe Trump will make a deal with the House or Senate majority leader, but it seems to me unless something unusual happens, there won't be significant increase in spending on infrastructure.
Can the FED not just print money and buy all the bonds keeping interest rates low?
Why do you say "suffered?" For my personal finances, low/no inflation seems like a very good thing. My saved money doesn't decrease in value.
How does printing money to buy government bonds reduce the debt?
2) A strong dollar improves our real terms of trade meaning we can actually have more stuff for the same unit. We get a higher real standard of living.
Who is checking the fact checkers?
The article clearly says the fed can raise interest rates or not as it wishes.
The article doesn't disagree with your point 2 (I agree with it too) it just talks about domestic political issues related to this factor.
This effect is compounded by the fact that our companies are competing against companies from other nations, whose goods are now cheaper to buy, making them more attractive than US goods.
(This happens whenever a government promises to spend a lot on infrastructure improvements.)
2. Foreign investors anticipate this and are buying US dollars. This makes the dollar stronger w.r.t. other currencies.
I think a strong currency is usually a good thing in a scarce market environment. It means that your country can buy a lot of the world's natural resources easier than others. This should usually be a good thing (for the US).
But there is a problem:
The US doesn't actually do anything with natural resources anymore, we don't make things like steel or plastic etc anymore, or rather, we don't "add value" to natural resources. Instead, with a strong dollar, we let others add the value and (import) buy their finished goods. The few things that we do make become more expensive to others, so our exports decrease. Domestically, there are fewer "manufacturing" jobs.
Trump will try to stop this and the only tool he has is to increase import tariffs. This article seems to equate that with global financial ruin, and it is the point of contention that I want to raise.
These two facts: raising import tariffs and a strong US dollar may help cancel out the effects. Instead of destroying foreign markets, it may simply "transfer" who gets the surplus generated by the strong dollar from the foreign markets to our tax base.