In 5 years, our Leaf has needed new tires, brake fluid, and... windshield wiper fluid and blades. We didn't need any new infrastructure. We plug it into a normal outlet at night, and it's full every morning. We've been taking the money we save on not doing transmission fluid and clutches and oil changes, and all of that stuff and put it in a savings account. In another 3 years, we'll need a new battery, but by then, it will probably be twice the capacity of the old one. (Nissan has discontinued the 24Kwhr battery, so fingers crossed, we'll get a 40KWhr battery when the time comes).
From a more global perspective, even here in Northern California, electricity is very inexpensive at night, because of all the spare generator capacity. Practically everyone can plug in their car at night, and with nothing more sophisticated than a $10 outlet timer, fuel up the fleet no problem.
Will every car be electric in 2040? Probably not, because cars last a long time. But I'll bet there will be very few gas cars sold by then. Battery prices are falling over 7% a year, and that's the most expensive part of an EV.
Even that expense should disappear. My Fiat 500e lets me set a timer to start its charge.
Switch to composite construction and other corrosion resistant materials, and...
Another reason not to let DRM dominate this emerging market; so that we are not faced with profit-driven forced obsolescence.
There was a time when the maintenance cost of cars (traditional) were little. Things changed because now things are made to fail after sometime aka planned obsolescence.
Do you think electric car companies will be different?
I did. It did't require "regular tuneups". You pour petrol and plain tap water for coolant in the radiator and the thing just goes...When it get stuck, you open the hood and take a peek, pull some wires, adjust some plugs and it goes again...
I don't recall any really expensive repair work in the 15 years that we owned that car.
And those same engines had no power.
If you want a Model T engine, it's really uncomplicated.
You just won't be able to drive on any modern highway.
What do you think will happen (to the the electricity charges at night) if every one does that?
It seems unlikely that demand will rise to daytime and early evening levels, however.
Once you factor in the cost of initial purchase (and the the new cables required) and the case and other attachments, touch-screen phones are (and will stay) more expensive, meaningfully than flip-phones. And flip phones are much more reliable, they don't have a screen that breaks when you drop it, etc.
Meanwhile, electric cars, while nicer in many ways than ICEs, still fundamentally perform the same task. And if you downgrade from an electric to an ICE, you haven't lost any functionality.
I was running a podcast downloading app and writing Python scripts on my E65 before the iPhone even had the Store.
You are right, but ICE cars need all manner of other maintenance often new transmissions or outright replacement. This is a minor issue, and is exactly the kind of problem that the GP poster was talking about. These battery replacements will be talked about like they are a huge showstopper, but the reality is probably closer to wasting a an hour or two at the mechanic or dealership and some kind of fee as they take the old battery for refurb and give me a fresh one.
And someone will figure out how to charge a car on a normal outlet.
http://diy.stackexchange.com/questions/30926/what-types-of-e...
For a Tesla, a standard 110v circuit charges at 3.5 mph; 220 is 2x or 4x depending on the amperage of the circuit.
I had 2 new breakers put in for an office of mine a few years it cost less than $200. If I could pay this then pay half as much for fueling my car for the next year, I would do it every year.
EVs are fundamentally simpler and cheaper to build than combustion vehicles. Fewer parts, less complexity, more commoditisation and potential for economies of scale.
The only reason EV's are more expensive today is battery prices, which are dropping rapidly and will continue to do so.
ICE cars are much more reliable , they don't need an expensive battery swap every 5 years.
In testing, modern EV batteries last much longer than this already. Even after 10 years and hundreds of thousands of miles, you're still likely to have over 80% of the original capacity. In something like a Tesla, that's still a very useful vehicle. And the battery technology will only get better.
You need to stop thinking about electric vehicle batteries like those in your phone or laptop.
EV batteries have a lot more (and better) management, keep things within (or closer to) optimal temperature and state of charge which all have major impacts on battery life.
Tesla has a battery pack with over 500,000 miles of simulated usage that's still got more than 80% of it's capacity. Surveys of Model S owners has shown that degredation is not an issue. [1]
[1] https://electrek.co/2016/06/06/tesla-model-s-battery-pack-da...
And when fuel is priced low it isn't more expensive than electricity.
So yes, an EV might have some extra benefits and some western consumers might be willing to pay more for that, others won't and especially not people at the 3rd world.
So only 10% global penetration rate unless there's some government incentive by 2040 and maybe longer seems likely.