Re:Does prospect theory explain Trump and Brexit votes?
by Lazare on Monday November 21, 2016 @09:57PM
(#13011258)
It's entirely possibly that most people might be planning on voting for a candidate, but incorrectly believe that most other people were planning on voting for their opponent.
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Re:Does prospect theory explain Trump and Brexit votes?
by PhantomGremlin on Monday November 21, 2016 @10:08PM
(#13011316)
That's certainly quite possible.
But in the final weeks the US election had close polling. Clinton was leading Trump by less than 5% in most polls and was actually behind in a few of them (Matt Drudge always managed to find those polls to link to).
So it's hard to understand why people might have those beliefs in a relatively close election. Easier to understand if the election was predicted to be a blowout.
But blowouts don't happen that often. The most recent true blowout I experienced was Reagan vs Mondale in 1984. An electoral blowout, only Minnesota and DC voted for Mondale. But the popular vote was closer, roughly 59%/41%.
Re:Does prospect theory explain Trump and Brexit votes?
by dajohnson89 on Monday November 21, 2016 @10:38PM
(#13011427)
Why isn't anyone considering that within the margin of error, the polls were correct? Isn't the confidence interval +/- a few percentage points anyways??