And on the one hand, I think that might be good; I'm not a fan of hegemony and imperialism. But for all its faults, the US is at least a democracy, unlike Russia and China. As a European, I strongly prefer American hegemony over Russian hegemony. But maybe it's time for the EU to finally stand on its own feet and take up the leadership of the free world. Hopefully more benevolently than the US, although recent events don't look very hopeful there either.
And in time of danger every country becomes more egoistical, as the many recent crisis demonstrated (bonds, migrants, etc). So China and Russia will benefit of a US downsizing and Europe will get the worst of it.
The only way out would be ejecting every country not willing to really merge into a strong political union, make the United States of Europe, get back some of the other countries when they'll be willing to give away their sovereignty. Problem is: there are zero countries willing to give away their sovereignty now. National political leaders are not going to risk their authority and privileges and run for a European government which only a few of them will get into.
As a German, I don't see that happening. The EU is beginning to collapse outright (Brexit, the way Europe still treats Greece and the way Europe leaves Germany stranded with the refugees, esp. Eastern Europe) and even if the EU manages to stay together as an union, the trend to nationalism and right-wing populism is worrying:
- in France, le Pen/Front National has a non-small chance of winning the elections in 2017
- Hungary with Orban basically has a fascist in power
- the situation in Poland doesn't look much better (Kaczynski nationalist government, 100k right-wing demonstrants marched in Warsow today, https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/heute-in-europa/videos/warsch...)
- Italy is under threat from the M5S party led by Beppe Grillo, they want to exit at least the Euro currency, and the general situation is unstable
- in Greece left-wing Tsipras is in a coalition with right-wing ANEL
- Germany has, mainly fueled by the refugee situation, seen a rise of both a nationalist party (AfD) in parliaments with people predicting 10-20% at the Bundestag elections as well as massive violence against refugees and left-wing people.
- Turkey isn't part of the EU, but I think that the situation in Turkey could explode into civil war sooner than later. Or into a Hitler-level dictatorship.
And should it come to war... well I don't believe that the EU stands a flying chance against the Russians. German tank troops practice with broomsticks instead of blank cartridges (I'm serious, https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article137549045/Bun...), the new NH90 marine helicopter isn't licensed to fly over sea, and the A400M transporter jet isn't remotely useful right now.
Europe without US protection is a nightmare, and I'm afraid that at least Russia will exploit this. Especially as no country in the EU except maybe France actually has the capability or will to fight.
Outside of France I fear it's mostly paper tigers, even the UK. France is clearly one of the most militaristic nations in Europe and the only one who has demonstrated willingness to use force (see UK's parliament report on the Lybian intervention).
I still think Russia is a lot stronger than people think.
You might think 1939 is not relevant anymore, how about 1994 obligations? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit...
In theory France was supposed to intervene in Ukraine in case of Russian aggression, in theory.
There will be ZERO reaction when (not if) Russia invades Estonia. Remember Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008? Guess who was the ONLY one actually doing more than public statements from the comfort of their own office(and note that some like Merkel didnt even criticize Russian aggression)? Polish president flew over warzone (Russian controlled air with active military aircraft around) to join Georgian parliament in protest. Guess where is Polish president Kaczynski now - died mysteriously in plane accident over Russian airspace two years later.
We did not "want them", in contrast to rest of Europe we Germans just upheld our moral obligations. About the only thing Merkel did right during her term. And I'm proud that the general population is doing their best to help those seeking a space safe from war.
What I'm ashamed of are the actions of the minority who attack refugess and their homes though.
> We celebrate independence from being occupied by YOUR country among other parties.
That's no excuse to let fascists march.
WTF. Dude, you are from the country that gave us Hitler and Nazi party, and you call national holiday celebration a fascists march?
That said, Putin plays a subtle game, and his ties to various European extremist groups is certainly cause for worry. He will continue to destabilize Europe, but a lot more than that is needed for Russia to rule over Europe. Though if the EU is sufficiently divided, the Baltics are definitely within reach.
And the economy will not be missed, even when trying to fix the ships that are Greece and Italy and Spain?
At some point it seems like Germany can't have the only economy propping up the rest of the EU
But Greece has to fend for itself, and has lost the means to fend for itself, because they're not in control of their monetary police. They're unable to devalue their coin as they should. But if they were to become part of a more integrated EU economic policy, the EU would eat up their debt without blinking, and invest in Greece to fix the problem, which is currently apparently against the rules.
This goes for tech too. American companies like Uber, Netflix, Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Apple have been able dominate most of the world market. In a protectionist world they will be locked out, just like they are in China today.