Re:Ask HN: Who's making money during the election madness?
by rflrob on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @03:29AM
(#12907807)
If the bookies are doing their jobs right, they'll make money either way. They set up the market, and the people who think Trump's odds are better than 20 percent will pay 20c for the shot at winning a bit less than a dollar, the bookie shouldn't let them buy it unless there's also someone who thinks $0.80 to win a bit less than a dollar sounds good. The bookie then holds onto the full dollar they get, and then pay out (say) 97 cents on {inauguration, electoral college vote, whatever}.
Re:Ask HN: Who's making money during the election madness?
by tomp on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @02:53AM
(#12907396)
Only a moron would believe such odds, especially after happened to Brexit (odds were the same on the night before the result).
Re:Ask HN: Who's making money during the election madness?
by ryuker16 on Saturday November 12, 2016 @04:35PM
(#12940338)
Up until a few hours before trump took Florida, the traditional news sites were discussing how big a sweep for Clinton and if Republic would loose the house.
Re:Ask HN: Who's making money during the election madness?
by somehnreader on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @03:14AM
(#12907618)
I won £20 with a £5 stake at my local bookies. Wouldn't really count that as 'making money' though.
Re:Ask HN: Who's making money during the election madness?
by gadders on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @07:31AM
(#12909712)
I must be a moron then as I won £200+ Man, that stupid is really feeling bad right now.
Re:Ask HN: Who's making money during the election madness?
by acedinlowball on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @03:23PM
(#12914263)
Sarcasm is the mark of an immature child.
Improve yourself.
Re:Ask HN: Who's making money during the election madness?
by gadders on Monday November 14, 2016 @04:29AM
(#12948577)
I think sarcasm is a pretty appropriate response to being called a moron.
Re:Ask HN: Who's making money during the election madness?
by mvdwoord on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @06:09AM
(#12909219)
If there was a 1% chance of outcome x, and I offered you 1000 to 1 odds, would you be a moron to take the bet, just because there is only 1% chance of winning it? Please call me.
This moron put in EUR 100 yesterday at 4:1.
Re:Ask HN: Who's making money during the election madness?
by seanmcdirmid on Wednesday November 09, 2016 @07:42AM
(#12909776)
Bets for a Trump win were reasonable as a hedge.
Only a moron would have bet on trump with 80% chance of a Hilary win estimated. Heck, even trump clearly didn't think he would win judging by his claims the election wold be rigged before it began.