It makes sense when you put it that way. I guess the issue is not so much risk tolerance as cynicism. It is a negotiation where the information asymmetry does not favor me. The potential employer must be offering a variable compensation package with a claimed EV of $X because they believe their actual cost will be less than $X. Otherwise, why make it complicated? They'd just offer $X. I conclude that the only actual knowledge I have about the value of the offer is that it won't be lower than the base salary. I therefore accept the offer if the base salary is high enough to make the job worthwhile, and reject it otherwise. Any additional money which might happen to come along later I treat as a windfall; it has no incentive effect.