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A comment on Discovery of peculiar modulations in a small fraction of solar type stars. Parent comment

Re:Discovery of peculiar modulations in a small fraction of ... by mrow84 on Thursday October 20, 2016 @02:56PM (#12755104)
Shouldn't the expression be more like

  P(probes) = 1 - P(no probes)
            = 1 - (1 - (P(civ launches one probe)*P(probe reaches Earth)))**Nciv
You can then simply argue that P(probe reaches Earth) is small, because you don't believe that Bracewell-von Neumann probes are effective.
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