Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile and Russian Spy

Re:Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile an... by cmdrfred on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @06:12PM (#12739214)

She's at 41%[0] (38% among only registered voters, Trump is at 37% by the same metric) and falling favorably wise, Bush was also at 41%[1] when he was inaugurated but around 47% - 48% at this point in the election. Given her probable "private position" on TPP and other anti-worker policies that number will be lower than Bush (his personal worst in office is 29%), and in half the time. Democrats should hope that she steps down or is impeached, as it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent.

[0]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/31/a-... [1]http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm

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Re:Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile an... by AnimalMuppet on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @06:26PM (#12739288)

> ... as it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent.

It should be impossible for her to win re-election in four years. But it also should have been impossible for her to win this year. All the Republicans had to do was run somebody moderately competent. But...

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Re:Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile an... by cmdrfred on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @06:34PM (#12739331)

Looking at the numbers, all they have to do is not pick Donald Trump. Carson is at 44% (8% never heard of him and 12% report they have no opinion) right now with no advertising spend. Assuming he doesn't have some dark past we don't know about in 4 years, against Clinton it's not even a contest.

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Re:Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile an... by dragonwriter on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @06:46PM (#12739397)

Relative favorability isn't much of a guide to incumbent vs. challenger elections, though I think there is some evidence that it has some loose utility as a predictor of open-seat elections. (OTOH, the incumbent's approval -- not favorability -- seems to be a strong predictor for incumbent reelection.)

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Re:Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile an... by dragonwriter on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @06:32PM (#12739318)

AFAIK, there's not much evidence of a particular link between favorability (as opposed to approval) and reelection prospects, and even less for pre-election favorability and reelection prospects.

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Re:Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile an... by cmdrfred on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @06:43PM (#12739383)

I don't know of a study, but if 70%+ of the country dislikes you it will be difficult to get elected.

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Re:Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile an... by white-flame on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @07:08PM (#12739556)

Trump is basically preventing her from losing.

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Re:Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile an... by toyg on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @06:34PM (#12739329)

> it will be impossible for her to win the election in 4 years as an incumbent.

4 years is a long time in politics. GWB was struggling in early 2001: his "compassionate conservatism" platform had been revealed for the religious fundamentalist welfare-slaughter program it always was, he was under fire for making backroom deals with energy-industry cronies and other serial polluters, was clearly stuttering in public appearances, and half the country thought he was just a rich brat who had cheated his way into the White House.

Then 9/11 happened and GWB became Fearless Leader. For a few years his power had literally no boundaries. He walked into re-election.

Hillary will need a bit of luck, but nothing that cannot be solved with a well-timed spat with North Korea or equivalent.

EDIT: uh, why the downvotes?

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Re:Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile an... by cmdrfred on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @06:40PM (#12739359)

The ground zero speech[0] is why I believe that happened, while simple it stands as one of the most memorable in American history (This is coming from a kid who wore his "fuck bush" t-shirt to school). I don't think Hillary can pull something like that off.

[0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7OCgMPX2mE

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Re:Background on Attempts to Frame Assange as a Pedophile an... by toyg on Tuesday October 18, 2016 @07:03PM (#12739519)

Maybe, maybe not. The way the media works these days, you need very little to weave a narrative - a tear, a hug, a sign of rage, a simple speech in the right place... She's not a crowd-pleaser the way GWB or her husband were, but I'm sure she can muster a decent "Joan of Arc" in the right circumstances.

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