How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by vintermann on Thursday October 13, 2016 @03:20AM (#12699073)

Nate Silver arguably lost a good deal of "prediction calibration points" by placing a very low chance on Trump getting the nomination in the first place.

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Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by 1812calif on Thursday October 13, 2016 @04:12AM (#12699256)

Not at all. A low probabilty does not make the prediction invalid because of the result.

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Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by Sacho on Thursday October 13, 2016 @05:38AM (#12699531)

And wouldn't the same be true if Trump wins the election? After all, Nate Silver isn't predicting a 0% chance for Trump to win, I think last time I checked it was 10-15%.

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Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by vintermann on Thursday October 13, 2016 @07:05AM (#12699824)

Well, that's not what I said either.

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