How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by throwaway729 on Wednesday October 12, 2016 @05:00PM (#12696383)

I think it will be really interesting to see what happens in election forecasting if Trump wins this election -- doubly so if there's no major scandal for Clinton between now and election day.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by jacquesm on Wednesday October 12, 2016 @07:22PM (#12697174)

What happens with election forecasting will be the least of our collective problems.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by inimino on Thursday October 13, 2016 @02:59AM (#12699008)

If the polls stay as they are and the election goes the other way, it means that polling as practiced is somehow fundamentally broken, which would be very surprising.

If there's a gradual shift in the polls, I'm not sure what that would mean. Which scenario did you have in mind?

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by ddalex on Thursday October 13, 2016 @06:37AM (#12699733)

BRexit will likely want to have a word with you.

I have a feeling that polling is used now a political weapon not a measure of reality.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by vintermann on Thursday October 13, 2016 @03:20AM (#12699073)

Nate Silver arguably lost a good deal of "prediction calibration points" by placing a very low chance on Trump getting the nomination in the first place.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by 1812calif on Thursday October 13, 2016 @04:12AM (#12699256)

Not at all. A low probabilty does not make the prediction invalid because of the result.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by Sacho on Thursday October 13, 2016 @05:38AM (#12699531)

And wouldn't the same be true if Trump wins the election? After all, Nate Silver isn't predicting a 0% chance for Trump to win, I think last time I checked it was 10-15%.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by vintermann on Thursday October 13, 2016 @07:05AM (#12699824)

Well, that's not what I said either.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by kahrkunne on Thursday October 13, 2016 @02:49AM (#12698979)

>doubly so if there's no major scandal for Clinton between now and election day.

Unlikely, considering there's one every other day

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:How One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National P... by Scarblac on Thursday October 13, 2016 @02:54AM (#12698998)

Repeating the same thing every other day doesn't count.

[ Parent | on HN ]